Covid And The Rest of Us

[ronandannette]

Interesting trends here. Our mask mandate has been in place for about a month and it went into effect about 6 weeks after we re-launched with all retail, personal services, restaurants and movie theatres being re-opened (under strict conditions). Testing is way up (consistently over 10,000/day province wide) and cases are up 100+ new each day. We’ve got over 1,100 active, which is higher than in May. Hospitalizations are very low - currently 44 province-wide and only 7 in ICU (with potentially 1,040 beds being available). We’ve not had any fatalities this week.

What are your speculations? That social distancing is a more effective measure than masking? (Our most highly-concentrated outbreaks right now are in meat-packing plants). That the virus has morphed into something less lethal? That significantly at-risk individuals are doing a better job protecting themselves or are being better protected? (There are currently no reported outbreaks in senior’s care facilities).

Our schools resume next week under a highly complex plan of various safety measures. Everyone involved is highly urged to get tested prior. Tens of thousands of asymptomatic people are being tested. It is currently not possible to get an asymptomatic test unless one is either a student or a staff member of the school boards. It will be interesting to see what happens next.

 

[Jrb1979]

Interesting trends here. Our mask mandate has been in place for about a month and it went into effect about 6 weeks after we re-launched with all retail, personal services, restaurants and movie theatres being re-opened (under strict conditions). Testing is way up (consistently over 10,000/day province wide) and cases are up 100+ new each day. We’ve got over 1,100 active, which is higher than in May. Hospitalizations are very low - currently 44 province-wide and only 7 in ICU (with potentially 1,040 beds being available). We’ve not had any fatalities this week.

What are your speculations? That social distancing is a more effective measure than masking? (Our most highly-concentrated outbreaks right now are in meat-packing plants). That the virus has morphed into something less lethal? That significantly at-risk individuals are doing a better job protecting themselves or are being better protected? (There are currently no reported outbreaks in senior’s care facilities).

Our schools resume next week under a highly complex plan of various safety measures. Everyone involved is highly urged to get tested prior. Tens of thousands of asymptomatic people are being tested. It is currently not possible to get an asymptomatic test unless one is either a student or a staff member of the school boards. It will be interesting to see what happens next.

Our numbers have been creeping up a bit here too in Ontario. Its been mostly people under 40 were the cases are coming from. They keep drilling the message about wearing masks and social distancing but many under 40 just don't care. My hope is to see them go back to fining people for not following the rules.

 

[MommyinHonduras]

We have had mask mandates since March, with strict social distancing measures as I have shared. The past 2 weeks they allowing most things to open that are able to open and still in business. With the restrictions of only being out one day every 10 days not proving to be worth it for most to open. I mean if a couple can not dine on the same day, kids are not allowed anywhere as they should still be locked at home, no more testing than months ago..... it all feels pretty ridiculous to write it out. But our hospitalizations are under 1,000 now for the first time in many months. That is the only way to really see what is going on, will those numbers go back up in the next month as more people are out regardless of their numbers/? It is happening here, almost no business is checking numbers, if you are willing to come, they will take your money and serve you. I hate waiting to know things, I am not a very patient person.

 

[Karin1984]

Interesting trends here. Our mask mandate has been in place for about a month and it went into effect about 6 weeks after we re-launched with all retail, personal services, restaurants and movie theatres being re-opened (under strict conditions). Testing is way up (consistently over 10,000/day province wide) and cases are up 100+ new each day. We’ve got over 1,100 active, which is higher than in May. Hospitalizations are very low - currently 44 province-wide and only 7 in ICU (with potentially 1,040 beds being available). We’ve not had any fatalities this week.

What are your speculations? That social distancing is a more effective measure than masking? (Our most highly-concentrated outbreaks right now are in meat-packing plants). That the virus has morphed into something less lethal? That significantly at-risk individuals are doing a better job protecting themselves or are being better protected? (There are currently no reported outbreaks in senior’s care facilities).

Our schools resume next week under a highly complex plan of various safety measures. Everyone involved is highly urged to get tested prior. Tens of thousands of asymptomatic people are being tested. It is currently not possible to get an asymptomatic test unless one is either a student or a staff member of the school boards. It will be interesting to see what happens next.

That's the theory here in NL. I do think we went to a more contagious, but less lethal mutation of the virus. Hospital figures are way down in comparison to our peak, but positive is only 50% less.

March/April vs. now:
Admitted to hospital: 500 vs. 5 a day
Admitted to the IC: 100 vs less than 1 a day
Positive per 100K: 6 vs 3 a day
R: 2.2 vs. 1.1
Last death was on the 23rd. About 50 people in August.

 

[MommyinHonduras]

I know my first person on the island who has tested positive. He is in his mid 70s and in great health for his age. He thought he has a cold and was home resting but he is a volunteer at our local clinic and was diagnosed with pneumonia so they tested him for covid due to his age and symptoms. He says he's doing ok, but he has a gaggle of ladies making sure he is fed and cared for.

My friend has died on this morning, he knows he is loved by God and knew death is not the end. We are all grieving here but thankful we called him friend.

 

[TLSnell1981]

My friend has died on this morning, he knows he is loved by God and knew death is not the end. We are all grieving here but thankful we called him friend.

I'm so sorry for your loss. Prayers for you and his loved ones.

 

[godisney14]

I just asked about flu shots and the pharmacist looked at me like I was crazy. He said they won't be available until Oct. - like every other year.

Some providers have them available already, but not everyone.

That's the theory here in NL. I do think we went to a more contagious, but less lethal mutation of the virus. Hospital figures are way down in comparison to our peak, but positive is only 50% less.

March/April vs. now:
Admitted to hospital: 500 vs. 5 a day
Admitted to the IC: 100 vs less than 1 a day
Positive per 100K: 6 vs 3 a day
R: 2.2 vs. 1.1
Last death was on the 23rd. About 50 people in August.

You could make a better guess if there was demographic info of the cases, particularly by age and region.

 

[ronandannette]

We have had mask mandates since March, with strict social distancing measures as I have shared. The past 2 weeks they allowing most things to open that are able to open and still in business. With the restrictions of only being out one day every 10 days not proving to be worth it for most to open. I mean if a couple can not dine on the same day, kids are not allowed anywhere as they should still be locked at home, no more testing than months ago..... it all feels pretty ridiculous to write it out. But our hospitalizations are under 1,000 now for the first time in many months. That is the only way to really see what is going on, will those numbers go back up in the next month as more people are out regardless of their numbers/? It is happening here, almost no business is checking numbers, if you are willing to come, they will take your money and serve you. I hate waiting to know things, I am not a very patient person.

My friend has died on this morning, he knows he is loved by God and knew death is not the end. We are all grieving here but thankful we called him friend.

You're in my thoughts very often and we continue to pray for your family, your nation and all nations facing similar circumstances. Godspeed your friend - precious in the sight of the Lord is the death of His saints.

Some providers have them available already, but not everyone.


You could make a better guess if there was demographic info of the cases, particularly by age and region.

We have all but stopped receiving demographic information - just raw numbers now. As I mentioned up-thread, I suspect it's yet another attempt to manipulate compliance by "keeping everyone on their toes" as the nuanced facts might paint a less-grim picture.

 

[Karin1984]

You could make a better guess if there was demographic info of the cases, particularly by age and region.

The Netherlands is a very small country ;-) In comparison to other countries, the entire country is as big as a region.
We don't get information per region or province. We do have it per city area how many infections, hospitalizations and deaths there are. Except for some local hotspots where the cases are usually al linked to one (family) gathering, infections is mainly the big cities like Amsterdam and Rotterdam.

Age / gender I had to look for, it isn't reported in the dashboard. But in comparison to a few months ago, the infections are now mainly in the 20 - 40 age region. Hospitalizations are mainly 60+ and deaths are all 60+.
For gender it's what the entire world sees, I believe. Overall, more men are infected/hospitalized/deceased due to covid. Except in the 90+ age group, but that's because women get older than men. In that final age group, there are less men to begin with.

 

[anthony2k7]

Interesting trends here. Our mask mandate has been in place for about a month and it went into effect about 6 weeks after we re-launched with all retail, personal services, restaurants and movie theatres being re-opened (under strict conditions). Testing is way up (consistently over 10,000/day province wide) and cases are up 100+ new each day. We’ve got over 1,100 active, which is higher than in May. Hospitalizations are very low - currently 44 province-wide and only 7 in ICU (with potentially 1,040 beds being available). We’ve not had any fatalities this week.

What are your speculations? That social distancing is a more effective measure than masking? (Our most highly-concentrated outbreaks right now are in meat-packing plants). That the virus has morphed into something less lethal? That significantly at-risk individuals are doing a better job protecting themselves or are being better protected? (There are currently no reported outbreaks in senior’s care facilities).

Our schools resume next week under a highly complex plan of various safety measures. Everyone involved is highly urged to get tested prior. Tens of thousands of asymptomatic people are being tested. It is currently not possible to get an asymptomatic test unless one is either a student or a staff member of the school boards. It will be interesting to see what happens next.

My guess would be that the social distancing and masks are leading to people being infected with a lower viral load causing most to have less severe infections now.

I'm not convinced that the different strains have that much of a difference in the type of symptoms yet.

 

[bavaria]

What are your speculations?

It's such a tough question, because as you note the trend in much of the world for the last several months has been cases rise, but deaths remain flat. The 'noise' from the politicization of this in the US makes it very difficult to discuss with some skepticism without being labelled as extreme right wing (witness the situation in Berlin which was using the Basic Law and COVID restrictions for the usual group of extremists, many non-German, to try and have an audience. Now discussion about COVID severity means that people reference that group)

There is a lot of information now that the virus is not what we thought back in early Spring. The death rates are not as high, and areas without restrictions or masks are seeing a fall off of cases or deaths. But this leads to the problem I asked about several months ago - what is the exit strategy? Do countries start to open borders, or keep them firmly closed? Do schools reopen, and when cases rise, how will that be handled? Again, it's difficult to discuss when we have the unique American situation being so loud in the world, so I try and put them aside.

I'm very much now of the belief that this was not as extreme as we were originally led to believe, or that it has followed the path of SARS, and become less dangerous. I wonder if we would have shut down the world, had the US not slammed shut their borders back in March? The EU shut borders five days later, in response.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/...6PpZo2kxotNwkUXlnbZXCwSRP2OmqsI#Comorbidities
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02483-2
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...ccda40-d80e-11ea-930e-d88518c57dcc_story.html
Re masks, I think that the US is relying on them as their primary tool now because they have not managed social distancing, effective broad testing, or contact tracing. Their only weapon left is masks. But in other places I am not convinced that masks are having much impact, and many places saw a decrease in numbers without ever mandating masks.

 

[bavaria]

The Netherlands is a very small country ;-) In comparison to other countries, the entire country is as big as a region.
We don't get information per region or province.

The RKI produces a daily (even Sunday!) report which has almost too much detail I think. The English version may have a bit less, but for anyone who likes data, there is so much here.
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ...chte/2020-08-30-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

 

[bavaria]

My friend has died on this morning, he knows he is loved by God and knew death is not the end. We are all grieving here but thankful we called him friend.

I'm so sorry for you all for your loss, and thinking of you all as I suspect that you are also limited in how you can collectively share your grief. Best thoughts.

 

[godisney14]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/30/fda...avirus-vaccine-before-phase-three-trials.html

Hard pass.

If a vaccine is really approved by the end of this year, or even early next year, in this method, one should be very wary. We’re talking about a vaccine, not a lifesaving drug.

No one I know will be among the first group to be part of what will basically be an expanded phase 3 study if a vaccine actually gets emergency use approval before study results become known.

 

[godisney14]

Re masks, I think that the US is relying on them as their primary tool now because they have not managed social distancing, effective broad testing, or contact tracing. Their only weapon left is masks. But in other places I am not convinced that masks are having much impact, and many places saw a decrease in numbers without ever mandating masks.

One Italian professor did a behavioral study and found people behaved more cautiously as others in public took more precaution.

 

[Welsh_Dragon]

One Italian professor did a behavioral study and found people behaved more cautiously as others in public took more precaution.

View attachment 522863

I think there may be some merit to this argument. In England masks are mandatory in shops; in Wales masks are advised. I have noticed that in both countries fellow customers wearing masks tend to be more respectful of personal space. Even on dog walks in the countryside, when masks are not compulsory in either country, I give people a much wider berth if they are wearing a mask. I suppose that I am respectful of their decision to be cautious.

 

[ronandannette]

I think there may be some merit to this argument. In England masks are mandatory in shops; in Wales masks are advised. I have noticed that in both countries fellow customers wearing masks tend to be more respectful of personal space. Even on dog walks in the countryside, when masks are not compulsory in either country, I give people a much wider berth if they are wearing a mask. I suppose that I am respectful of their decision to be cautious.

Is may be just my perception but I’d say exactly the opposite. When most people were unmasked people stayed farther apart (myself included) and masked they tend to get closer together. I’ve even noticed people at work and church resume handshakes and hugs since our mask mandate came in a month ago and several convenience stores and gas stations have taken the plastic barriers down.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Is may be just my perception but I’d say exactly the opposite. When most people were unmasked people stayed farther apart (myself included) and masked they tend to get closer together. I’ve even noticed people at work and church resume handshakes and hugs since our mask mandate came in a month ago and several convenience stores and gas stations have taken the plastic barriers down.

When masks became the go to advice the distance between people became shorter IME. I think it's because we were more vigilant about our personal spaces when that was our barrier. With masks that became the predominant barrier and distancing became laxer.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

My friend has died on this morning, he knows he is loved by God and knew death is not the end. We are all grieving here but thankful we called him friend.

I am so so sorry to hear about this

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Re masks, I think that the US is relying on them as their primary tool now because they have not managed social distancing, effective broad testing, or contact tracing. Their only weapon left is masks. But in other places I am not convinced that masks are having much impact, and many places saw a decrease in numbers without ever mandating masks.

It's honestly IMO more that masks became THE focus. In the beginning it was distance and really observational we did fairly well, nowhere near perfect but well enough perhaps call it hyper-focus on 1 thing which was distance. Then all of a sudden the hyper-focus was masks, masks masks, lots of "wear a dang mask", "I wear a mask to protect you, wear a mask to protect me" all sorts of things about masks. Timing also had a lot to do with it. Distancing was the primary focus early and when stay at home orders were starting, going on and then ending. Masks came a bit later more middle to late of stay at home with big big focus in the summer.

I don't truly know that masks became our last resort because they are still doing the other stuff, albeit not as well as other countries. I think it comes down to different approaches countries take like you've mentioned in the past. IMO I think the U.S. just needs more approaches at the same time working together than perhaps other countries. Maybe that's a mixture of behaviors, how our country is set up, the powers afforded and not afforded to all out officials, the timing the virus hit, the various laws and social aid, etc. IDK just my thoughts and I do catch myself every now and then envying other countries in terms of that but it's one of the reasons this thread is so fascinating because you get to learn a bit how it works in other countries.