DVC News - August 2023 DVC sales report

[PolyRob]

Maybe I'm being overly literal with the precise wording of the article, but it said:

"The data is compiled from deeds filed by Disney Vacation Development and recorded with the Orange County (FL) Comptroller" (emphasis in the original)

At least for my personal resale contract, that said, in part:

"WHILE YOU MAY EXECUTE ALL CLOSING DOCUMENTS IN ADVANCE, THE CLOSING, AS EVIDENCED BY DELIVERY OFTHE DEED OR OTHER DOCUMENT,BEFORE EXPIRATION OF YOUR 10-DAY CANCELLATION PERIOD, IS PROHIBITED"

So I think that those who expressed interest in August, but didn't go through and sign wouldn't have been included and therefore would not have been included in the dataset.

We're saying the same thing. I was expressing that anyone who verbally committed to an August sale and didn't sign until September wasn't captured in the report which seems like a high number of people.

@Disfamwa made the excellent point that people who spread out payments (myself included) won't be captured until their 90 days are up.

Seems like a great way to inflate sales for the remainder of the year.

 

[AstroBlasters]

We're saying the same thing. I was expressing that anyone who verbally committed to an August sale and didn't sign until September wasn't captured in the report which seems like a high number of people.

@Disfamwa made the excellent point that people who spread out payments (myself included) won't be captured until their 90 days are up.

Seems like a great way to inflate sales for the remainder of the year.

I believe their fiscal year ends in September. October 1st everyone starts back at square 1.

 

[Genie+]

We're saying the same thing. I was expressing that anyone who verbally committed to an August sale and didn't sign until September wasn't captured in the report which seems like a high number of people.

@Disfamwa made the excellent point that people who spread out payments (myself included) won't be captured until their 90 days are up.

Seems like a great way to inflate sales for the remainder of the year.

Yeah we signed in June and made final payment by Sept 2. Our 150 VGF will be counted with Sept sales, right?

 

[Genie+]

After August sales it is calculated VGF2 80% sold. Many of the Summer Incentive sales are not yet accounted for so I wonder how much closer to sold out it is.

 

[mamaofsix]

I was thinking the same thing. There were so many of us who signed the first two weeks of Septemeber. My guess is that after the Sept. Sales are posted for VFG, it will be at 90% sold out.

 

[Genie+]

I was thinking the same thing. There were so many of us who signed the first two weeks of Septemeber. My guess is that after the Sept. Sales are posted for VFG, it will be at 90% sold out.

It’s possible most of the points are spoken for by the time 2023 comes to an end. Maybe not finalized but gone nonetheless.

 

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

I am pretty sure it was last year in 2022 Poly went to $250. They also did run incentives in January which seems odd

It still represents that they are doing something different than they did for BPK,

I could be wrong but I think Poly has been priced at $250 since January 2021. I believe Poly tower was announced after that in March 2022, so if that is all correct there has been no Poly direct price increase since more than a year prior to the expansion announcement. Yes, I agree they are handling Poly differently than BPK.

 

[CastAStone]

I could be wrong but I think Poly has been priced at $250 since January 2021. I believe Poly tower was announced after that in March 2022, so if that is all correct there has been no Poly direct price increase since more than a year prior to the expansion announcement. Yes, I agree they are handling Poly differently than BPK.

Yes, Poly hasn’t increased since the before tower was announced, every single other resort has in that time.

A clear sign it definitely, absolutely (pick one: will / will not) be its own association.

 

[tjkraz]

We're saying the same thing. I was expressing that anyone who verbally committed to an August sale and didn't sign until September wasn't captured in the report which seems like a high number of people.

DVCNews sales data is 100% based upon contracts which are recorded with the county. There is no way for anyone outside of DVC to track direct sales which are on their books but not yet recorded. Closings typically run at least 2-3 weeks past the signing date. And it can be longer if people have made arrangements to pay over a period of 60-90 days.

That's a long winded way of saying that "August" direct sales is almost entirely limited to contracts which would have been signed and paid in full before (approx) August 10. Contracts from roughly August 11-Sept 10 will be "September sales." So we will probably see another full month of sales under the summer incentives. And a few more that trickle through in October and maybe even November due to slow paperwork return and stretched-out payments.

The numbers do not include any resale transfers.

 

[Genie+]

Yes, Poly hasn’t increased since the before tower was announced, every single other resort has in that time.

A clear sign it definitely, absolutely (pick one: will / will not) be its own association.

A clear sign it’s gonna be at least $250pp lol. For now.

 

[TinkAgainU]

I didn’t see this linked elsewhere here. If it’s a duplicate, I apologize.

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...ngthen-disneyland-sales-weaken-in-august-2023

Their site seems to be having issues - this did not load for me today. (Edit: Now Fixed)

 

[CarolMN]

Their site seems to be having issues - this did not load for me today.

It's been working normally for me. Perhaps there was some network issue between your server and DVCNews' server.

 

[CastAStone]

A clear sign it’s gonna be at least $250pp lol. For now.

 

[TinkAgainU]

It's been working normally for me. Perhaps there was some network issue between your server and DVCNews' server.

The link is working again now thanks!

 

[Nursemanit]

I think VGF may sell out with September sales ( last min signs and the spread-out payments )

Unpredicted reality - RIv may be the only active WDW resort for quite some time.

 

[maui22]

DVCNews sales data is 100% based upon contracts which are recorded with the county. There is no way for anyone outside of DVC to track direct sales which are on their books but not yet recorded. Closings typically run at least 2-3 weeks past the signing date. And it can be longer if people have made arrangements to pay over a period of 60-90 days.

That's a long winded way of saying that "August" direct sales is almost entirely limited to contracts which would have been signed and paid in full before (approx) August 10. Contracts from roughly August 11-Sept 10 will be "September sales." So we will probably see another full month of sales under the summer incentives. And a few more that trickle through in October and maybe even November due to slow paperwork return and stretched-out payments.

The numbers do not include any resale transfers.

Tim, do you know if Wil tracks points for individual units and UYs?
I am curious how many units we don't know what their UYs will be?

With 8 UYs and 366,975 points that means if all UYs had equal amounts they would each have 45,871 points remaining. Extremely likely that some UYs have far more and others are extremely limited.

With Sept 11 and later data not included in Wil's data, some UYs are highly likely to be under 25,000 points remaining.

 

[DanCali]

Good question. Why are people buying original Poly DVC direct?

Possibly because they hope that the Poly tower will be part of their condo association, giving them 11-month booking privileges there. And maybe they’re hedging their bets - buying direct means they can stay there whether it’s the same or a new condo association (booking at 11 or 7 months, respectively). Buying resale at Poly means that if it is a new condo association, they will not be able to book there with their resale points.

I don't think that, in most cases, it has to do with Poly2 speculation. Most of the "sold-out" resorts resorts had a handful of contracts which sold in August (it happens every month) and the average contract size is generally less than 100 points. It's probably just add-on contracts by members who either don't know about the resale market or are not comfortable with it.

The average for Poly is about 130 points, but that can be driven by one larger 300+ point contract.

 

[mamaofsix]

Tim, do you know if Wil tracks points for individual units and UYs?
I am curious how many units we don't know what their UYs will be?

With 8 UYs and 366,975 points that means if all UYs had equal amounts they would each have 45,871 points remaining. Extremely likely that some UYs have far more and others are extremely limited.

With Sept 11 and later data not included in Wil's data, some UYs are highly likely to be under 25,000 points remaining.

I asked a similar question on a different thread and was told that Disney doesn't limit according to Use Year when selling direct points? Some folks were saying that their guides would not sell them Oct. or Dec Use Years recently for GFV.

To me, that would indicate they were "running out" of certain Use Years. But I was corrected that this wasn't how it worked??

 

[Mikey15]

Unpredicted reality - RIv may be the only active WDW resort for quite some time.

Sales usually start months before a new resort “opens,” right?

They can probably turn Ft Wilderness cabins on whenever they’re satisfied that they can stop marketing VGF active sales, and even now we’re only about 7 months away from people’s predictions of Poly on-sale date.

That being said I absolutely believe VGF selling out will help Riv, and they will want to milk those sales in the 4-6 month period where it has no real internal competition.

 

[CastAStone]

Sales usually start months before a new resort “opens,” right?

They can probably turn Ft Wilderness cabins on whenever they’re satisfied that they can stop marketing VGF active sales, and even now we’re only about 7 months away from people’s predictions of Poly on-sale date.

That being said I absolutely believe VGF selling out will help Riv, and they will want to milk those sales in the 4-6 month period where it has no real internal competition.

They started selling Aulani a full year before it opened. Not sure if there’s rules around it in Florida but just chucking that out there as a historic data point.

At the same time, “only” Riviera is probably going to help them move through some Riviera points. Which I can’t imagine they’ll hate.