GRAND OPENING - GRAND CLOSING (Florida)

[jlwhitney]

We know the media likes to post the worst and most dire info they can find, and what I am seeing is lots of info about “spikes” in cases, but practically nothing about hospitalizations- every now and then the media will say there is a “rise” in hospitalizations, but we don’t get a lot of numbers of how many beds and ventilators we have available. We have to search for those. Many people who test positive are asymptomatic and/or don’t need any medical help at all.

I think we can be assured that when there is actually a concern that hospitals could be overwhelmed, the media will be reporting that everywhere.

The media has been reporting “spikes” in cases in Georgia, but when we actually go look at the data, which they don’t report, there are plenty of hospital beds available. Over half of our ER beds are available. 70% of our ventilators are available.

Georgia has been open for six weeks and people have been active and largely mask-less- and we have plenty of beds and medical supplies- and that’s with all the elective surgeries being done.

We expect lots of people to test positive. Back in March, several doctors were saying that a good portion of the population will eventually get this. Most will have few to no problems.

As long as people with compromised immune systems continue to social distance and avoid going out, there should not be a huge rise in hospitalizations.

It’s a little premature to predict more apocalyptic shutdowns at this point.

It was also expected cases would rise some with reopenings, nothing new or unexpected there. It’s managing it.

 

[mousefan73]

What are the hospitalizations like? Just harping about "New cases" doesn't really mean anything. Are they cases that are mild and can be treated at home? Are they cases that are putting people in the hospital? In ICU?

An average of 8% of people in the US (that's over 26 MILLION) catch the flu each year, and that's WITH a vaccine readily available. Yes, I get that this is more serious than the flu. My point is about stressing over only the case numbers and not looking at what "kind" of cases they are.

Agree the focus should be on death , ICU bed occupancy and hospitalization rates. Problem is I believe FL will not release these numbers correctly. ; correct me anyone if wrong but that is what I have read many times about FLs reporting

 

[cmp3400]

Agree the focus should be on death , ICU bed occupancy and hospitalization rates. Problem is I believe FL will not release these numbers correctly. ; correct me anyone if wrong but that is what I have read many times about FLs reporting

I have looked and not been able to find them, so if anyone has a site, that would be great.
I think that is part of the issue--all we have right now is testing and based on the (LIMITED) experience of other locations, when infections go up eventually the hospital rates and then the deaths go up. That is one the of the challenges with this virus--it is a slow process and by the time you notice your death rate is high, you have a huge problem.

There is this site (which I where I am getting the ICU numbers I posted upthread), but it isn't COVID specific
https://bi.ahca.myflorida.com/t/ABI...link&:isGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&:embed=y

 

[Cogswel_Cogs]

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/New-York/#history This is I have my reports linked to if that helps. Just replace New York with another state.Not sure if there is more deatil on site

 

[cmp3400]

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/New-York/#history This is I have my reports linked to if that helps. Just replace New York with another state.Not sure if there is more deatil on site

For Florida the "Currently" numbers are....N/A :-(

 

[fly girl]

I think a lot of people forget that the stay-at-home order was to prevent our hospitals from being overwhelmed, not to eliminate Covid.

No doubt, no one wants cases to rise, but it is inevitable now that things are opening up. Remember months ago when they showed the charts for the 1918 Spanish Flu, Philly vs. St. Louis? St. Louis had bunny hills -- I think that is likely what we will be experiencing. We just want to keep it on a trend that won't overwhelm our healthcare system. Testing is increasing and people are out again, so I am not shocked by the increase.

However, we have to heed caution so cases don't spike through the proverbial roof. The good thing (not really) is that cities have a contingency plan in place if cases rise higher than the beds open. I know Cincinnati is ready to go in 3 days if needed. I truly hope it isn't needed though.

Tricky balance we are all in right now.

 

[Cogswel_Cogs]

I think a lot of people forget that the stay-at-home order was to prevent our hospitals from being overwhelmed, not to eliminate Covid.

No doubt, no one wants cases to rise, but it is inevitable now that things are opening up. Remember months ago when they showed the charts for the 1918 Spanish Flu, Philly vs. St. Louis? St. Louis had bunny hills -- I think that is likely what we will be experiencing. We just want to keep it on a trend that won't overwhelm our healthcare system. Testing is increasing and people are out again, so I am not shocked by the increase.

However, we have to heed caution so cases don't spike through the proverbial roof. The good thing (not really) is that cities have a contingency plan in place if cases rise higher than the beds open. I know Cincinnati is ready to go in 3 days if needed. I truly hope it isn't needed though.

Tricky balance we are all in right now.

I agree, we still have no idea if there is a vacine for this. If not we need some people with some imuninty. It seems you better offcatching in the summer, thats look pretty conclusive if you look at warmer countries and death rates. If it wasn't for the after effects it would make this a much better option though.

 

[Planogirl]

I'd like to know more about how badly this damages lungs. It seems that many people end up with different levels of lung damage but I've never seen any figures on that. That is also an important consideration.

 

[godisney14]

I'd like to know more about how badly this damages lungs. It seems that many people end up with different levels of lung damage but I've never seen any figures on that. That is also an important consideration.

You won’t get any population level data because it requires patients to have two CT’s. No one is going to pay for all that.
What we can go off of are the studies that have been published on smaller study cohorts. Those all show there are varying levels of lung damage as you mentioned.

 

[shh]

In some places, yes they are thinking of doing this. I actually don't even think, if the virus takes off, they will ramp down on openings. This virus has become very politicized here and opening/closing seems to follow a political party viewpoint. My own state's governor has received numerous death threats over going a bit slower. Every time a phase is delayed (or even when it progresses) the comments on social media are extreme. I'm quite shocked at the mentality out there.

Agreed - cannot believe dedicated scientests, doctors and health dept heads are now getting fired by politicians because they don't like their advice (i.e. bad for business/revenue) and dealing with death threats to themselves and their families, simply because they're trying their best to get people to practice precautions and keep them safer. Disgusting. So many low-lifes in the world: makes me sick. This is like a bad disaster movie that just won't end.

What are the hospitalizations and ICU numbers? Have they ramped up testing and that’s why numbers are increasing?

Right now, CVS and other chains in FL are heavily advertising easy drive through covid tests - that's fairly new. The availability of testing has just recently increased exponentially here - so there will DEFINITELY be a sharp rise in cases - I'd be surprised if there wasn't. But as others have said hospitalization and death rates are the critical factors here. Those go up - major problem.

That said, I'm a mask, distancing, follow the rules girl - so I definitely feel I'm at odds with the majority of Floridians lol. But I sure am going stir crazy!!! I'm making 2 exceptions to staying at home - for a keys trip this summer and HHN in fall - unless things really get nuts around here.

 

[Makmak]

So it's not only one way, it's also "no passing"?

That’s the idea, unless you shop somewhere that has aisles wider than 6’ haha.

 

[JimMIA]

I did some detailed digging into the Florida county-by-county stats for new cases and came up with two general conclusions:

• A few counties had dramatic one-day spikes in new cases, and then returned to normal levels. Those are probably nothing more than a big test dump by one or a few labs. For example, my county of Miami Dade went from our normal 250 new cases per day to 571 on one single day, but then dropped back down. Big jump and big enough to show significantly in the state totals, but it's a one-off, not a trend.
• OTOH, a handful of other mid- to large-sized counties have shown significant increases which have held for several days
  • Broward -- 150/day to 225/day and holding above 200 -- that's about a 40-50% increase
  • Hillsborough (Tampa) -- 100/day to 170/day -- +70, +70%
  • Lee (Ft Myers area) -- 70/day to 200/day -- +130 cases/day, almost triple
  • Orange (Orlando, WDW) -- 50/day to 160/day -- +110/day, triple (and the general WDW area reports 0 cases)
  • Palm Beach -- 190/day to 380/day -- + 190, double
  • Pinellas (St Pete) -- 65/day to 160/day -- +95, 2.5x
  • Seminole (Altamonte Springs to Sanford) 15/day to 50/day, +35, triple

Keep in mind that even those numbers that held are only 3-4 days at the most, so we have to see where they go from there.

I'm not sure what, if any, important conclusions we can draw from this data -- and Dade, Broward, and I think Palm Beach have really not done any significant reopening yet (although they have all had large demonstrations).

 

[greg9x]

Agree the focus should be on death , ICU bed occupancy and hospitalization rates. Problem is I believe FL will not release these numbers correctly. ; correct me anyone if wrong but that is what I have read many times about FLs reporting

This is the same Florida that fired the coronavirus data scientist for refusing to manipulate the numbers to show Florida was improving....so I wouldn't put much trust in the Florida 'official' numbers.
Florida relies heavily on tourist for income...they are going to say whatever they can to get people to vacation there.

But yes, the focus should be on hospitalizations and deaths... there is going to be increases everywhere of positive testings, that's what happens when everything opens back up. Now we wait to see what the severity of it all is.
So if Orlando hospitals start to fill up I would think the theme parks would need to be shut down again... there are plenty of high risk people going on vacations there right now, if they get a severe case and have no where to go whats going to happen ? Wait it out in hotel room ?

Even around here, mask wearing and distancing is seen as an annoyance...people are screaming for everything to go back to 'normal'. If things do get bad again, I think deaths are going to be seen as price to pay...people won't go on lock downs again.

 

[JimMIA]

This is the same Florida that fired the coronavirus data scientist for refusing to manipulate the numbers to show Florida was improving....so I wouldn't put much trust in the Florida 'official' numbers.

She's not a scientist, LOL!

She's a computer programmer, specializing in GIS and was in charge of the coding for the Florida DOH covid dashboard website for a short time.

She's not a medical or scientific person of any description.

Florida relies heavily on tourist for income...they are going to say whatever they can to get people to vacation there.

Yep, we LOVE our tourists -- and we want you to return when it is safe to do so. But we're not going to falsify data to get you back.

 

[wombat_5606]

Something may be up at Disney Springs. They closed some of the DIsney-owned stores today, unexpectedly.

https://allears.net/2020/06/14/several-stores-in-disney-springs-are-unexpectedly-closed-today/

 

[mousefan73]

Something may be up at Disney Springs. They closed some of the DIsney-owned stores today, unexpectedly.

https://allears.net/2020/06/14/several-stores-in-disney-springs-are-unexpectedly-closed-today/

Interesting. One can speculate. Maybe an employee tested positive and they need to deep clean. Who knows.

 

[greg9x]

She's not a scientist, LOL!

She's a computer programmer, specializing in GIS and was in charge of the coding for the Florida DOH covid dashboard website for a short time.

She's not a medical or scientific person of any description.

Yep, we LOVE our tourists -- and we want you to return when it is safe to do so. But we're not going to falsify data to get you back.

I only know her title from the news reports, so ok. She was still fired for not manipulating the data correct ?

 

[wombat_5606]

I only know her title from the news reports, so ok. She was still fired for not manipulating the data correct ?

Yes, everyone is calling her a data scientist. I'm sure that's their job title, not one she picked for herself.

This is part of a NPR article that tells what is going on from her perspective and a Florida epidemiologist.



Now a private citizen, Jones continues to take issue with the way the state is calculating its coronavirus positivity rate. The official Florida site says there are more than 1.3 million "total people tested" in Florida, of which about 73,500 were positive, resulting in an "overall percent positive" rate of 5.4%.

But Jones says that figure is misleading.

"I actually wrote the script to create that data, so I know exactly what it looks like," she says. "And I've audited it and checked it with several other statisticians and people who are working the press to make sure it's correct."

She says that on the state's dashboard, any person who tests positive will be counted as a positive test only once, no matter how many times they test positive. But a person who tests negative will be counted over and over again each time they test negative for the coronavirus.

Jones says that because many residents, such as health care workers, require repeated testing, the state's dashboard is artificially deflating the true positivity rate.

"They're adding their total test figures instead of their total people, which makes their percent positive extremely low," she says.

Cindy Prins, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Florida, finds Jones' dashboard to be more comprehensive than the state's.

"There's some data on there that either wasn't on the Florida COVID-19 DOH dashboard or was available and maybe wasn't presented in the same way that it's being presented now ... You're just getting a bigger picture of what's going on," Prins says.

She also notes that the state's site doesn't appear to use the "total people tested" label accurately.

"From a definition standpoint, 'total people tested' and what it actually represents is 'total number of tests conducted.' Those are two different measures," says Prins, explaining that she has been tested — but if she were tested again, she shouldn't be counted as a separate person. She's just a person who has been tested twice.

"There's a distinction there between total number of people tested versus total number of tests carried out."

 

[JimMIA]

I only know her title from the news reports, so ok. She was still fired for not manipulating the data correct ?

The news likes to call her a scientist like she was the brains behind the whole state covid-19 effort -- better headline, more clicks...$$$.

And most of the news media who give her big play have other agendas besides covid as well.

She was just a web designer and played no part in any of the epidemiology analysis or decision-making.

She claims she was fired for refusing to design the website the way her bosses wanted. She's working on a lawsuit now for wrongful termination. Her bosses claim she was a disciplinary problem. Who knows?

I've never heard anyone question Florida's data or presentation of the data other than because of her claims. So I guess if she's a disgruntled ex-employee, she's been quite successful at it.

 

[HeatherC]

Agree the focus should be on death , ICU bed occupancy and hospitalization rates. Problem is I believe FL will not release these numbers correctly. ; correct me anyone if wrong but that is what I have read many times about FLs reporting

Which is why I would not believe the numbers Florida is reporting.