Poll: Are you going to buy at Riviera

[4luv2cdisney]

Also DVC has added addtional costs to transfering the resale contracts. It multiplies for smaller contracts and I won't be surprised if they add more along the way as yet another deterrant.

Wait...what did they do now???

 

[TexasChick123]

As one of the more vocal opponents of the reallocation/new restrictions and how that represented the ability and willingness on Disney’s part to make money at the expense of the membership, I’m not going to lie; when the opportunity to buy into DRR became a reality, I was back to my pre-Jan19-restrictions/pre-retracted-reallocation self. As ELMC astutely put it, it became a head vs. heart thing. And my heart is so close to having the upper hand.

Disney, in every way, taps into the joy center part of my brain and has since I first went to Disneyland as a wide eyed six-year-old. Today, I buy the $15 flashing balloon within a balloon because I see those same wide-eyes on my six-year-old. There is a joy there that is fun to give in to (Amex bill hangover notwithstanding).

So when that video of the model room tour was posted, and I had a glimpse of the nice new bathroom, the VGF-esque finishings, that neato Murphy bed, my family was suddenly riding in a gondola to a soundtrack of the Turtles’ “So Happy Together.” I had a serious conversation with my wife about buying in. She didn’t care about any of the financial logistics, or the minutiae of resale risks, she just loved the idea of staying at the new resort which “looks great!” We both work really hard and can afford it, so why not?

Hook. Line. Sinker.

But the sobering thing for me was the point chart (even more so than the dues, which I agree will be par for the course in a couple of years). We’ve seen that Disney is prepared to use the point charts to generate capital at the expense of the broader membership. It isn’t enough that we buy in, pay dues, now the increased breakage “to address membership demand” through reallocation is in play.

Disney showed its hand with the retracted reallocation. As soon as the point charts post-selling out became changeable, PVB studio costs went up to “balance demand.” Presently CCV studios can’t be priced too aggressively against BRV studios when selling points direct on the same resort property, so the Cabins sit around available a few weeks out, most times of the year, and studios are walked year round. You can guess what I think will happen after CCV sells out.

As I look at DRR charts more carefully. I see that pattern continuing. 1BRs are priced more than twice the cost of studios, and in some sesasons 1BRs are only 23% less than a 2BR. This suggests to me that the point chart is set up beautifully for DVD to tee off of it, and then for DVCMC to “address membership demands” once it is sold out. While there is some insulation with dedicated units, studios will go up in price, as they will be really high in demand, offset perhaps by a slight decrease in GVs to address the dedicated units.

1BRs are a terrible “value” and as it is most owners will buy small, and DVCers as a whole are frugal with points, studios (which again sleeps 5) will book up quickly, creating an inordinate supply of 1BRs (from breaking up a lockoff), and this will create an imbalance that will conveniently be addressed post-sell-out courtesy of a member-centric reallocation.

I don’t see Disney management doing anything in the membership’s best interest without there being a benefit to the bottom line. I think DRR is an experiment of how far they can leverage that acces to the joy center of my brain. For now, I’ve decided not to buy in because I don’t want to be party to Disney continuing down that path.

Am I missing out on buying in at the ground level to a resort I might actually like and hold onto for 50 years? Maybe? Probably. But I owe it to my soapbox to sit this one out for now*.

*Bing reserves the right to be a complete hypocrite and buy in secret should the economy take a dive and free cruises are back on the table.

Everything you are saying makes sense. To say I have not second guessed my purchase would be a lie. I second guess all large purchases, not just DVC. You should’ve seen me when I bought my house, car, etc. Did we make a huge mistake? Will the resale restrictions kill the resale value? Are they going to offer a type of fee to trade at 7 months and what would that look like? Will this fee allow people to book at 8 months and get a jump over L14 owners? At the end of the day, it came down to resort and amenities, decent incentives, length of contract, and ACCESS TO TWO PARKS.

Hopefully, we made a good decision for our family since our kids are young. I think we did, but I am confident that I will enjoy the new resort. I really like the walking access to Epcot from BWV and BCV, but the expiration dates make me nervous. I would probably just add on more Epcot resort points in 20 years at Lord only knows what price to keep those F&W trips going if I didn’t buy DRR and kept my BWV points.

Here was the flow chart of my thoughts about Riviera so others can see they aren’t alone:

Announcement there will be a new resort with access to Epcot and HS: So excited! Finally, we can own an Epcot resort that won’t expire in a less than 25 years because we're in our 30s with younger kids.

Announcement of point reallocation and resale restrictions: I hate DVC and should sell all of my points. They’re so greedy!

Announcement about the basics of Rivera except the points charts and sales info: DH says we need to take another look because BWV is expiring sooner, but I’m still firmly against it.

Some time between the basics announcement and the actual info: Maybe I’ll take a look because I still want a longer contract Epcot resort, but I’m still angry about all the recent changes and restrictions.

Announcement about the sales info and points charts: These are much better incentives than I was anticipating. The points charts are pretty high. I can break this up into smaller contracts and pick my UY. This is the first contract that may outlive me barring I die younger than average. I love gondolas as do my kids. The resort is so nice. Everyone that’s taken the tours loves these rooms. BWV is 1/2 the price for 1/2 the life left on it. What to do? What to do?

I get a credit card with great rewards and no interest for 15 months for another reason and realize I can use it for these points. I still can’t make up my mind for a few more days and give myself a headache. We decide to purchase after a lot of discussions and spreadsheets.

My point with all this is to see how much back and forth we went through before buying. We were all over the place. I’ve never felt “good” after any DVC purchase because it’s a lot of money. I always feel great when I’m on vacation and using my points to stay at Disney though.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Wait...what did they do now???

I'd have to go look at what the exact fee is called but it would relate to a cost to transfer. It was much higher a year ago than the last time we had bought resale. I'll see if I have a chance to find actual numbers.

 

[CraigInPA]

So... I just made the initial pitch to DH tonight. We had been discussing adding on at BLT resale to get us reliably into 2br for longer stays, but I had always regretted not buying an EP resort 2 years ago (ancient history, it seems, when BCV was around $100-$105pp and BWV was <$100pp). So now, the thought of a new 11-mo advantage in the EP/HS area for not *that* much more per point has suddenly become more appealing.

"that much more per point" is 25% ($140 resale BLT versus $188 DRR direct).

I can understand the appeal, but until we know how that gondola system works, the resort is still a bit of a crap shoot.

 

[Madame]

Bing reserves the right to be a complete hypocrite and buy in secret should the economy take a dive and free cruises are back on the table.

The dive is coming fast. Sometimes we are so far removed from the initial signs that we miss them. Chrysler just laid off starting Sept the 3rd shift here -1400.

We are/were an auto town and for decades have been in recession, even when the rest of the continent wasn’t. We’re buckling up for a bumpy ride not too far down the road.

 

[ELMC]

There is a joy there that is fun to give in to (Amex bill hangover notwithstanding).

That is why you need to get a Disney Visa.

 

[anomamatt]

I'm buying a smallish add-on next week. My reasons:

1. I want access to Tower Studios - going to require 11 months sooner rather than later
2. I love the easy access to 2 parks and I want 11-month points with such access
3. I need more DVC points, in general (continual theme, even as I keep adding on)
4. I like the resort theme well enough
5. least important: I want to swap a NYE trip and getting access to book it on April 10 is nice

I do understand the drawbacks. The resale restriction does give me pause. And the point chart for 1BRs is high (which I would want when not getting a Tower Studio). Those two reasons are why I'm going to buy 50-60 points instead of 175.

On the other hand, I'm not worried about the dues specific to RVA. I would bet good money the 2020 dues are essentially flat for RVA and go up 8-10% for most of the other resorts. There is still a ways to go for the $15/hour that is coming. I think what happened with CCV dues will happen with RVA. There was shock at the CCV dues when it opened, but CCV is now in line with the other properties, dues-wise.

 

[Bing Showei]

That is why you need to get a Disney Visa.

Hahahaha! Right, because nothing like paying you Tuesday for a hamburger today.

I agree with Madame, there are a lot of red flags going up in the economy; a stock market that has been building into it's price a resolution to trade disputes with China; corporate earning projections being downgraded across the board; increasing layoffs in several sectors; people feeling rich because of all the equity in their homes; a record $1 trillion in consumer debt in 2008 has morphed into a new record $4 trillion today. I don't want me adding to that, not for this hamburger.

 

[ljmiii]

As I look at DRR charts more carefully. I see that pattern continuing. 1BRs are priced more than twice the cost of studios, and in some sesasons 1BRs are only 23% less than a 2BR. This suggests to me that the point chart is set up beautifully for DVD to tee off of it, and then for DVCMC to “address membership demands” once it is sold out...

With so much to comment on (and agree with) I'll focus on this one small piece about 1BRs...and it isn't just the point chart.

Sometime after they built SSR, DVD realized they had a problem - there was an imbalance between demand for studios and 1BRs. And they responded to that imbalance by adding an extra bed to the 1BRs (allowing it to sleep 5 instead of 4) and even added an extra bathroom to BLT, Kidani, and VGC.

But then DVD realized *they* didn't have the problem....their members did. And members would only realize it after they had already bought into DVC. So, DVD decided to made studios as attractive as possible to get more buyers "in the door". 'For under $20,000 you and your family can go to WDW one week every year for the rest of your life...and we'll happily provide financing.' So people bought expecting to stay in a studio on the dates they wanted....even though a large chuck of the resort's points are 'stuck' in Bungalows, Cabins, and 1BRs. Surprise, surprise owners of Poly and CCV report that it can be difficult to reserve a studio at 11 months.

DRR continues this trend. The beautiful studio with it's murphy bed, tub, shower, TV bed, and balcony is almost as nice as the 1BR...at less than half the points. I'm sure there will be PLENTY of tower rooms and studios available during F & W (and Presidents' Week, Easter, Christmas, New Years, etc.)...

 

[ljmiii]

Wait...what did they do now???

$150.00 Estoppel fee to DVCMC (usually paid by the seller).

 

[ljmiii]

To say I have not second guessed my purchase would be a lie...Did we make a huge mistake? Will the resale restrictions kill the resale value?...

First of all congratulations on your purchase. I am sure you will enjoy each and every stay at DRR...and anywhere else you might use those points.

Second...I certainly feel the itch...I'm a 'No - I was but not now" vote. It's a beautiful resort and I expect the gondolas will be much better than buses and better than the monorail...though not quite as good as walking. At least once a day I think I should just buy. It helps that I took the money I thought I would spend on DRR and instead bought at VGC just before 1/19/19. But it's still not an EPCOT/HS resort...so that solace only helps so much. We'll see how I feel after our Dec/Jan visit!

 

[Bing Showei]

DRR continues this trend. The beautiful studio with it's murphy bed, tub, shower, TV bed, and balcony is almost as nice as the 1BR...at less than half the points. I'm sure there will be PLENTY of studios available during F & W (and Presidents' Week, Easter, Christmas, New Years, etc.)...

When I was seriously tempted to buy in, I rationalized this by saying I would buy a GW (48) to lock the studio in at the lowest rate possible and secure a Christmas decorations trip and not have to worry about the reallocation shenanigans. I would in turn use those as regular points on the 1BRs I like to stay in for a split stay with AK/MK. All I would give up is $500 in incentives.

In a few years, when I'm just taking parents-only trips, I'd have my guaranteed week, at a lower rate than the anticipated increase in studio costs after the resort sells out and is reallocated. Sounded like a solid plan, to me.

But something felt weird about the idea of offering to give $23K to a company that I actually expect to do something that will hurt my purchase down the line. It's like voluntarily buying "protection" from the mob.

I don't remember if it was Dean, Tim, or both, who said it, but if I had this much distrust for Disney, I should sell and get the hell out of Dodge. I actually agreed with this and went as far as to start the process of selling my holdings with a broker. Then I realized I was still enjoying going to the resort with my family and friends. I made out pretty well with my resale contracts I did get. I've accepted that changes may happen that kill the resale value of my current holdings (it really is a sunk cost with nothing guaranteed but a resort room).

A sensible friend, whom I respect hugely, pointed out that the points I hold are much more valuable to me than they would hurt Disney if I sold them (yeah, that'll show them!), so I'm going to hold onto these points and enjoy them while it's still fun for my family. I'm just going to wait and see before if I decide buying into Riviera would make us happy. It might, and there is a very real possibility I could be losing a ton of money by not buying in today, but too many unknowns for me at this point.

 

[ljmiii]

I don't remember if it was Dean, Tim, or both, who said it, but if I had this much distrust for Disney, I should sell and get the hell out of Dodge...

Once again I find myself agreeing with pretty much everything you wrote...even down to thinking about a Week 48 GW.

As for leaving DVC I too still want to go to WDW for the foreseeable future. "I know it's crooked, but it's the only game in town", pretty much sums it up.

 

[Mumof4mice]

I've changed my vote from No, I'll buy a L14 resale to Maybe. My heart likes those gorgeous rooms even if my head remembers all the deterrents.

Going the in between route - wait and see. The small premium paid buying later is worth it, to see Riviera and the Skyliner in operation. If the gondolas never stop for weather/ECVs and run 3 hours before and after park opening hours, I'd be sold.

With purchase incentives and renting out two years worth of points, direct price pp comes down to around $140. Which means resales would have be in the $60s for us to feel like it's worth our while dealing with the frustrating purchasing process and restrictions. I wonder where the resale prices would fall for DRR?

 

[anomamatt]

Once again I find myself agreeing with pretty much everything you wrote...even down to thinking about a Week 48 GW.

I've also been toying with a GW... do you know what happens the first year if/when the resort wouldn't be open for one's guaranteed week (e.g., week 48)? Would you still get UY-2019 points (assuming anything but Feb UY, which are not getting UY-19 points)?

 

[Bruin_mouse]

I've also been toying with a GW... do you know what happens the first year if/when the resort wouldn't be open for one's guaranteed week (e.g., week 48)? Would you still get UY-2019 points (assuming anything but Feb UY, which are not getting UY-19 points)?

I asked my guide that question. You're correct. Right now, all UYs get 2019 points except February.

 

[anomamatt]

I asked my guide that question. You're correct. Right now, all UYs get 2019 points except February.

I recall you bought GW #49, right? Did you get UY-19 points as a 'lump sum' since GW#49 isn't available this use-year?

Thanks!

(maybe you already confirmed that, I just wanted to double check)

 

[Bruin_mouse]

Great memory @anomamatt ! You're right again. This year I get 122 points. Starting 2020 I get my guaranteed week.

 

[anomamatt]

Great memory @anomamatt ! You're right again. This year I get 122 points. Starting 2020 I get my guaranteed week.

Awesome, thank you!

 

[ELMC]

Great memory @anomamatt ! You're right again. This year I get 122 points. Starting 2020 I get my guaranteed week.

Congrats! And this right here is the other side of the coin. While people like me hem and haw over the potential resale restrictions, using resale to book Riviera, price per point, etc., here is someone who knows that they are guaranteed a room in a gorgeous new resort in one of the hardest to book weeks of the year. If one takes a moment to stop analyzing and start living, I'm pretty sure that's worth it. Congrats on snagging what will certainly become a high demand guaranteed studio week!