I'll be the devil's advocate on this one. For us, it's a break even. I literally searched menus and looked up prices, created an excel sheet with what I figured my family would order, assuming we'd do at least one meal plan. It wound up that just for entrees alone the price was the same on the meal plan as it would be out of pocket, AND we get a snack and drink at another time.
Now a couple of caveats as to why this worked for us.
1. I like knowing meals are pre-paid. We have been saving for 3 years to do this vacation. I'm pre-paying for as much as I can to truly relax in the parks. By making assumptions (and yes, I know what assumptions can cause) on what my family will eat I know we're not wasting the credits.
2. My kids are PICKY. It's worth my time to pre-game the restaurants so I can steer my family toward something I know they'll eat and not rely on chicken nuggets all week. Other families may be more adventurous, leading to spur of the moment planning that works for them. Not everyone likes to look at menus and make choices months out (surely those people are not on the DIS, but I'm sure they'r out there
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3. You can always buy once you get into the parks and find out on the day that what you want is worth getting the dining plan. Any entree plus drink that's 15 bucks means you're breaking even on the plan.
4. and this relates to 1. I'm cheap. We live very frugally. I love being able to tell my kids yes you can get the bigger popcorn or the double scoop b/c it's considered a snack. Again, this may not be how your family functions so this may not be a payoff for you.
The current plan: One day's worth of QS dining for three in our party and one plan with the cup. If we find we don't use the cup much on the first day, then I'll just choose not to reactivate it the next day. It's 6 bucks vs 11 on the plan. A risk I'm willing to take. If my family eats the way I think they will, then we will purchase an additional day's worth of meals for the next day. If they don't then I'll save remaining credits for use at a different point during our stay.
Just my .02. I'm not a coaster person, I'm going for the HP stuff and the food so I've done a lot of research into those areas as that's what I like. At the end of the day, do what works best for your family.