Waiting for DISNEYLAND HOTEL DVC Thread (see post 1 for updates)

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

I’d love to see more shots from the parking lot side and the rear view to see the cascading section that doesn’t get much photo love. Have fun at DTD!

I was thinking the same thing!

 

[DonMacGregor]

I was thinking the same thing!

Well, I'll be parking in Simba so the p-lot side is no problem, but the BOB might be blocking too much of the view. I know you can see a sliver between the BOB and Frontier Tower. I'll head around back to Walnut Street and see what's visible. The big wall is still there and Walnut is pretty narrow (and has a tall row of trees in the median), so I may not be able to get far enough back to get a good view.

 

[UrsulaWantsYourSoul]

Everyone keeps asking “when will it be finished? When will it go on sale?” Oh to have a crystal ball. Most think it will be 6 months between the two due to California timeshare laws. I’m just hoping the earlier than usual increase next mont to $217 is to give us some time to get used to the new price not to give enough distance to do another price hike

 

[nalabear]

I like where this is going and think it would be good to add in add standard hotel rooms for a more diverse set of data. I'll ignore the 1-of-1 suites as those can go for 10k/night after tax

Peak season (highest on VGC calendar):

Hotel room, 4/9/23 - 4/16/23, by view	Disneyland Hotel	Grand Californian Hotel	GCH Premium
Standard view	5136.30	6535.62	27.2%
Woods-courtyard view		6751.41	[no matching view]
Partial view		7265.70	[no matching view]
Downtown Disney view		7658.82	VG-DTD vs DL-PDTD: 20.3%
Pool view		7837.83	Max vs. max: 23.1%; VGPool vs. DLPremium: 31.8%; VGPool vs. DLDeluxe: 38.4%
Deluxe view (view of pool)	5663.97		VGPool vs. DLDeluxe: 38.4%
Premium view (view of pool)	5947.11		VGPool vs. DLPremium: 31.8%
Premium Downtown Disney view	6364.80		VG-DTD vs DL-PDTD: 20.3%; Max vs. max: 23.1%
			Typical premium: ~26% (not counting Pool vs. Deluxe)

Lower season (2nd lowest on VGC calendar)

Hotel room, 5/7/23 - 5/14/23, by view	Disneyland Hotel	Grand Californian Hotel	GCH Premium
Standard view	4312.62	5507.19	27.7%
Woods-courtyard view		5854.68	[no matching view]
Partial view		6334.38	[no matching view]
Downtown Disney view		6635.07	VG-DTD vs DL-PDTD:24.7%
Pool view		6867.90	Max vs. max: 29.1%; VGPool vs. DLPremium: 37.6%; VGPool vs. DLDeluxe: 45.8%
Deluxe view (view of pool)	4710.42		VGPool vs. DLDeluxe: 45.8%
Premium view (view of pool)	4992.39		VGPool vs. DLPremium: 37.6%
Premium Downtown Disney view	5318.82		VG-DTD vs DL-PDTD: 24.7%; Max vs. max: 29.1%
			Typical premium: ~30% (not counting Pool vs. Deluxe)

Lower rack rates make a good argument that VDH will have a lower points chart, on average, than VGC. Though I'd be doubtful of VGC maintaining a 25-30% premium, which would put VDH just above BCV/BRV/CCV. Something like the BLT-RVA range, with a variety of views, feels more right to me, but I am definitely guessing.

VGC already has a pretty heavy points chart, too, so there is wiggle room below. Comparison of all resorts:

Average weeks by resort:	Studio	1 Bedroom	2 Bedroom
AUL	172.7	333.0	457.7
VGF	167.8 (156.9 pre-VGF2)	328.7	449.9
VGC	164.6	323.6	444.4
Poly	157.7	-	-
RVA	155.1 (excluding Tower Studios)	327.9	421.9
BLT	141.2	273.0	373.5
VBR	132.9	218.0	292.3
BCV	121.7	247.7	320.8
BRV	121.5	247.2	320.6
CCV	121.2	247.5	320.3
BWV	118.7	240.5	308.9
SSR	106.7	220.3	286.6
HHI	100.5	197.2	248.5
OKW	93.7	197.2	269.4

(all numbers above are properly weighted by the count of rooms in the view category and number of nights in each points season)

Great chart. TY for this.

Buy in will hopefully track with VGF - Since VGC is about 275 per point; the 27% puts it right about 215 per point buy in

I believe in order to maintain competitiveness with the cash rentals prices and not upset the point chart system, VDH will slot in somewhere between RVA and BLT which are about 94-85% of VGC. I can't see them making it that much cheaper points with RVA to VGF as a comp of VDH to VGC.

The last to factor are the annual MFs which I hope to mirror VGC if not a little lower given the size and facilities.


So best guess and budgeting: 215 buy in; point chart 155 studio for week and MFs about $7.50. targeting 150pt vs 300 with split to two seasons.

Pencils out to about $260 per day over life of contract (not including inflation of MF of course) compare to $400-500 daily cash room costs.

Outlay				50 years
Buyin	215		$32,250.00
Week	150
MF	$7.59		$1,138.50	$56,925.00
Total				$89,175.00
per year cost				$1,783.50
per day per year				$254.79

 

[NVDISFamily]

First - hope everyone had an awesome thanksgiving! Due to some last minute plans we moved our fiesta to Friday so I was spared the day of cooking today

Since VGC is about 275 per point

I love your chart and plans. Just wanted to say that I think VGC is trending more in the 240 to 250 a point range right now on the resale market and I don't think you would have any issues grabbing a 160 point contract (for some reason there are a lot of those out there) for like 245 a point. I got all of our family points for 245 a point (three contracts in total) and I don't see any market indicators to say that I would expect not to at least be that low.

Ultimately I think VDH will be less per point and have a slightly better point chart than VGC but I don't expect it to cover the rack rate delta between the resorts. I'm also more biased towards the 2BR suites and I think that widens the gap between the resorts. The big advantage is the longer contract and the fact that they are direct points so they will add to the bucket of flex points for use at any resort in the long run.

I just hope I'm wrong and the point chart is awesome.

 

[ehh]

Ultimately I think VDH will be less per point and have a slightly better point chart than VGC but I don't expect it to cover the rack rate delta between the resorts. I'm also more biased towards the 2BR suites and I think that widens the gap between the resorts. The big advantage is the longer contract and the fact that they are direct points so they will add to the bucket of flex points for use at any resort in the long run.

I just hope I'm wrong and the point chart is awesome.

I also hope you're wrong! And I think there's a chance as most VDH rooms will lack a feature that nearly every other DVC room has: balconies. There's gotta be a 1-5% pts/night penalty for a lack of balcony, right?

As I have slightly more VGC points than I need I'm not really in the market for VDH (though some day we might make the jump from Studio to 2BR and need a lot more DL-area points). But if it has a points chart below BLT (15% below VGC on average) I would be tempted. A solid 25% off VGC point chart (BCV level) might be an instant-buy for at least a one-stay-a-year contract.

I am concerned about the views though--our least favorite view, generally, is pool view. I'd rather a tree completely block my view from anything. Dumpsters/backstage/utilities/public streets would also be pretty bad. Seems like Pool and Public Streets will be the two main views for VDH, which isn't great for us. I guess this is where VDH's general lack of balconies might be a good thing as it should mean better noise insulation from the pool area.

 

[CarolynFH]

I don't think you would have any issues grabbing a 160 point contract (for some reason there are a lot of those out there)

Just a historical note: When VGC first went on sale, the minimum purchase for a new member was 160 points. That’s why there are so many 160 point contracts out there. (When DVC first started, the minimum purchase was 270 points, so there are a lot of OKW 270 point contracts. The new-member minimum has jumped around a lot since then.)

 

[nalabear]

First - hope everyone had an awesome thanksgiving! Due to some last minute plans we moved our fiesta to Friday so I was spared the day of cooking today



I love your chart and plans. Just wanted to say that I think VGC is trending more in the 240 to 250 a point range right now on the resale market and I don't think you would have any issues grabbing a 160 point contract (for some reason there are a lot of those out there) for like 245 a point. I got all of our family points for 245 a point (three contracts in total) and I don't see any market indicators to say that I would expect not to at least be that low.

Ultimately I think VDH will be less per point and have a slightly better point chart than VGC but I don't expect it to cover the rack rate delta between the resorts. I'm also more biased towards the 2BR suites and I think that widens the gap between the resorts. The big advantage is the longer contract and the fact that they are direct points so they will add to the bucket of flex points for use at any resort in the long run.

I just hope I'm wrong and the point chart is awesome.

Oh, haven't checked the resale market for VGC in awhile. That's down quite a bit from the past year. Makes it a lot more interesting on the pricing differential. 13 years shorter commit (for better or worse)

assuming 180 pp cost to maintain some price premium differential. If you maintain the 210 VDH it gets a lot more interesting to go VGC resale -- especially if in the 2BR market. I checked one of the more popular resale sites. Haven't seen this many VGC contracts listed ever. Wow.

Outlay			years	50
Buyin	180		$27,000.00
Week	150
MF	$7.59		$1,138.50	$56,925.00
Total				$83,925.00
per year cost				$1,678.50
per day per year				$239.79
cost per post per year				$11.19
rental	$20.00
VGC			years left	37
Buyin	245		$36,750.00
Week	150
MF	$7.59		$1,138.50	$56,925.00
Total				$93,675.00
per year cost				$2,531.76
per day per year				$361.68
cost per post per year				$16.88
rental	$20.00

 

[ehh]

Oh, haven't checked the resale market for VGC in awhile. That's down quite a bit from the past year. Makes it a lot more interesting on the pricing differential. 13 years shorter commit (for better or worse)

assuming 180 pp cost to maintain some price premium differential. If you maintain the 210 VDH it gets a lot more interesting to go VGC resale -- especially if in the 2BR market. I checked one of the more popular resale sites. Haven't seen this many VGC contracts listed ever. Wow.

Outlay			years	50
Buyin	180		$27,000.00
Week	150
MF	$7.59		$1,138.50	$56,925.00
Total				$83,925.00
per year cost				$1,678.50
per day per year				$239.79
cost per post per year				$11.19
rental	$20.00
VGC			years left	37
Buyin	245		$36,750.00
Week	150
MF	$7.59		$1,138.50	$56,925.00
Total				$93,675.00
per year cost				$2,531.76
per day per year				$361.68
cost per post per year				$16.88
rental	$20.00

Zero chance of VDH being $180/pt when it goes on sale. New contract baseline is currently $217 and will be at least $217 when VDH goes on sale, and initial incentives will likely be small (your original guess of $215 for 150pts sounds pretty good to me).

New contract VDH pricing will not be priced relative to VGC resale--they're independent variables. New contract pricing will be inline with standard new contract pricing that RVA/VGF have. Nightly point charts might be discounted relative to VGC as point charts tend to scale with rack rates at the hotels and DLH has 25-30% lower rack rates than GCH.

All that said, bumping your buy-in to $215 and dropping weekly points to 128 (a ~15% discount over VGC nightly points) is still really close to your $27,000 number shown above ($27,520 vs. $27,000). VDH cost/yr goes up a negligible $10ish so your end result numbers are still good.

 

[NVDISFamily]

Oh, haven't checked the resale market for VGC in awhile. That's down quite a bit from the past year. Makes it a lot more interesting on the pricing differential. 13 years shorter commit (for better or worse)

assuming 180 pp cost to maintain some price premium differential. If you maintain the 210 VDH it gets a lot more interesting to go VGC resale -- especially if in the 2BR market. I checked one of the more popular resale sites. Haven't seen this many VGC contracts listed ever. Wow.

Just for fun I just priced a 1BR suite cash for a Sun to Friday (5 night) stay in late June (another time we would likely want to go) and I'm showing a 54% delta from Disneyland Hotel to Grand Cal -



Every time I talk to @MrsNVDISFamily about what we should do we are torn between buying some points at VDH or just buying more VGC......

Edit - I forgot to add my $.02 on why I would guess a lot of people are selling VGC. I would bet that it's a mix of people realizing their gains to buy in at VDH and/or just the natural progression of the resort being 10 to 12 years old so those who bought in when the kids were 5 or 6 are selling now that they are grown up. If I were a more east coast focused family and I had bought in for VGC when it was in the low 100s I'd be tempted to sell VGC for VDH for our occasional trips west.

 

[NVDISFamily]

Zero chance of VDH being $180/pt when it goes on sale.

This was my guess for 300 points months ago (mid/high 180s) and I'm keeping my fingers crossed for @UrsulaWantsYourSoul that it does come true. That seems less likely given the way things are trending but...... the economy could change quite a bit in the coming months so I would say there isn't a zero % chance (just very very low) it will be lower than we are now expecting

 

[UrsulaWantsYourSoul]

This was my guess for 300 points months ago (mid/high 180s) and I'm keeping my fingers crossed for @UrsulaWantsYourSoul that it does come true. That seems less likely given the way things are trending but...... the economy could change quite a bit in the coming months so I would say there isn't a zero % chance (just very very low) it will be lower than we are now expecting

Woo Hoo. Yes 300 points is our current plan (price/point chart/what we think of it depending). I’m hoping with initial incentives it comes down to $200 or less for 300 points. Anything less would be a bonus. Still want more VGC - “only” have 300 there. And once it goes through its upcoming 2024 refurb is going to back to fabulous.

 

[ehh]

This was my guess for 300 points months ago (mid/high 180s) and I'm keeping my fingers crossed for @UrsulaWantsYourSoul that it does come true. That seems less likely given the way things are trending but...... the economy could change quite a bit in the coming months so I would say there isn't a zero % chance (just very very low) it will be lower than we are now expecting

I think there's an outside chance of it getting into the $180s in the slow time of year late-summer if demand lags expectations, but not when it first goes on sale.

Based on historical trends, VDH has a good chance to go on pre-sale in March-ish. For 300pts for existing members, VGF is scheduled to be $195/pt on Mar 1 and RVA is scheduled to be $197/pt. And those are 'old news' resorts. To hit $180 is another 8-9% drop below that on the newest resort with lots of assumed pent up demand (first DL-area DVC in over a decade, VGC is a tiny resort, DL has shifted to be more of a destination, etc.).

To top it off, the baseline increase from $207 to $217 was early (for the last 6+ years it's been in late Jan or early Feb, not early Dec) and makes me concerned they may try to squeeze in another baseline bump before VDH goes on sale

Also I thought we were talking about 150 points from @nalabear's charts

EDIT: for reference, because I keep spreadsheets of weird things, there's actually some good news about 'new hotness' resorts: VGF's pre-sale was $5/pt higher than RVA for 250pts but RVA's pre-sale was $11/pt lower than CCV for 250pts (might need to fact check this one lol), and CCV's pre-sales were $3/pt lower than PVB/AUL.

 

[NVDISFamily]

Also I thought we were talking about 150 points from @nalabear 's charts

I try to focus on the 300 point breakpoint as that’s usually a good target for the best discount and that’s what seems like the most fun. Plus I’m a bad influence and I want more points than I should buy

 

[nalabear]

LOL; we're looking at either 150 or x2 150= 300 points and fluctuating between the two-- along where to put us: VGC vs VDH -- we're all resale points currently and this is an opportunity to get into blue card (though little benefit currently for west coast folk). Really does come down to the point chart than anything. If there's only a mild difference between VGC and VDH - would go hunting on the resale listings especially with the larger selection at this time AND VDH pricing may push that even lower if VDH is competitive on the point charts -- oh the decisions!

I do agree $215 is more the mark with heavy incentives to drop it close to $200. So if can do which: $200 VDH - blue card vs $245 VGC?

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

LOL; we're looking at either 150 or x2 150= 300 points and fluctuating between the two-- along where to put us: VGC vs VDH -- we're all resale points currently and this is an opportunity to get into blue card (though little benefit currently for west coast folk). Really does come down to the point chart than anything. If there's only a mild difference between VGC and VDH - would go hunting on the resale listings especially with the larger selection at this time AND VDH pricing may push that even lower if VDH is competitive on the point charts -- oh the decisions!

I do agree $215 is more the mark with heavy incentives to drop it close to $200. So if can do which: $200 VDH - blue card vs $245 VGC?

How much you should care about the blue card depends how much you value staying at both properties.

If you buy VGC resale you will *probably* not be able to use the points ant VDH

If you buy VDH direct you will occasionally find a few free nights at VGC.

Other than that I can’t think of a blue card benefit that you can really put a price on for people who primarily go to Disneyland. What am I missing?

To me VDH is a no brainer between the two…but OTOH I am still mentally battling with DVC in general at Disneyland when so many affordable and decent off site options are *closer* than VDH, and when there’s just no real on site benefits (the early entry has way less value at DL then WDW because of how and when the crowds show up)

 

[limace]

I actually think early entry was very beneficial at DL last week-and you’re only fighting early risers from 3 hotels.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

How much you should care about the blue card depends how much you value staying at both properties.

If you buy VGC resale you will *probably* not be able to use the points ant VDH

If you buy VDH direct you will occasionally find a few free nights at VGC.

Other than that I can’t think of a blue card benefit that you can really put a price on for people who primarily go to Disneyland. What am I missing?

To me VDH is a no brainer between the two…but OTOH I am still mentally battling with DVC in general at Disneyland when so many affordable and decent off site options are *closer* than VDH, and when there’s just no real on site benefits (the early entry has way less value at DL then WDW because of how and when the crowds show up)

I want to be in a Disney bubble as much as possible so don't care to stay off-site. So it's VDH or VGC (if the resale prices keep dropping) for me. Why do you think VDH is a no-brainer?

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I want to be in a Disney bubble as much as possible so don't care to stay off-site. So it's VDH or VGC (if the resale prices keep dropping) for me. Why do you think VDH is a no-brainer?

Assumed Price, and then flexibility. In general I would suggest buying the cheapest DVC you would be happy with; in this case there’s also more flexibility with VDH direct because you (probably) can’t use resale VGC points at VDH but you can use direct VDH points at VGC.

If someone would only be happy with VGC then they shouldn’t buy VDH, but for someone who is torn like the poster I was replying to, I think spending less money is the easy call.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

Assumed Price, and then flexibility. In general I would suggest buying the cheapest DVC you would be happy with; in this case there’s also more flexibility with VDH direct because you (probably) can’t use resale VGC points at VDH but you can use direct VDH points at VGC.

If someone would only be happy with VGC then they shouldn’t buy VDH, but for someone who is torn like the poster I was replying to, I think spending less money is the easy call.

That's a very good way to look at it! Thanks