Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[taaren]

I can’t speak for others but I suspect that I wouldn’t be alone in dumping DVC if things don’t ever go back to normal. The resorts are nice and all but I’d definitely go elsewhere for vacation if the parks weren’t there.

Disney doesn't lose any money if you sell your DVC, though. It just means that someone else will be paying your dues and taking the room. The best thing about DVC for Disney is the captured money, once you buy .... someone will be there to take your place, buy park tickets, buy food and mouse ears.

 

[jamier2]

Disney doesn't lose any money if you sell your DVC, though. It just means that someone else will be paying your dues and taking the room. The best thing about DVC for Disney is the captured money, once you buy .... someone will be there to take your place, buy park tickets, buy food and mouse ears.

I don’t see anywhere in my post that I said anything about Disney losing anything from any action on my part. I obviously know that the contract I’m waiting to pass ROFR was already purchased and Disney has their cash.

If Disney remains as it always has been as far as desirable then they will still get my money. Hopefully for my family that is the case.

In a worst case scenario - that the Disney world parks experience is diminished enough by restrictions to actually drop demand significantly - it’s hard to imagine the demand for DVC across the board would not follow suit. That’s my only point. I love DVC but I know that without the parks the demand just wouldn’t be there. My point was simply that the value (or perceived value) of a DVC contract for the vast majority of owners is the Disney experience and the parks.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I don’t see anywhere in my post that I said anything about Disney losing anything from any action on my part. I obviously know that the contract I’m waiting to pass ROFR was already purchased and Disney has their cash.

If Disney remains as it always has been as far as desirable then they will still get my money. Hopefully for my family that is the case.

In a worst case scenario - that the Disney world parks experience is diminished enough by restrictions to actually drop demand significantly - it’s hard to imagine the demand for DVC across the board would not follow suit. That’s my only point. I love DVC but I know that without the parks the demand just wouldn’t be there. My point was simply that the value (or perceived value) of a DVC contract for the vast majority of owners is the Disney experience and the parks.

It might be that it becomes more popular if per chance that for quite some time it's onsite guests that are guaranteed to get into the parks and everyone offsite fights for reservation spots.

 

[CarolynFH]

I don’t see anywhere in my post that I said anything about Disney losing anything from any action on my part. I obviously know that the contract I’m waiting to pass ROFR was already purchased and Disney has their cash.

If Disney remains as it always has been as far as desirable then they will still get my money. Hopefully for my family that is the case.

In a worst case scenario - that the Disney world parks experience is diminished enough by restrictions to actually drop demand significantly - it’s hard to imagine the demand for DVC across the board would not follow suit. That’s my only point. I love DVC but I know that without the parks the demand just wouldn’t be there. My point was simply that the value (or perceived value) of a DVC contract for the vast majority of owners is the Disney experience and the parks.

I fully agree with you. My response above was to the question of whether inability to buy a dining plan would in and of itself reduce DVC resale prices, and I don’t think it would. Obviously it makes a difference to some potential buyers, but I think they’re in the minority.

 

[RamblingMad]

I think, they continue to drop until the parks get back to normal.

 

[Brianstl]

I think, they continue to drop until the parks get back to normal.

And probably more importantly the economy.

 

[RamblingMad]

And probably more importantly the economy.

Home prices are expected to drop about a point. I expect DVC to do roughly the same. But I’m guessing.

 

[Noah_t]

I think they will keep dropping. Up until this Pandemic DVC was a pretty solid bet. Rental prices are down and I suspect might never recover. The boards are full of people who swear they will no longer rent points. Disney also is losing a lot of goodwill with these recent changes and cancellations. The one thing Disney could do to help salvage DVC's value would be to put DVC at the top of the queue for getting into the parks. If DVC is seen as just a room as many people here are saying then the price will really drop. I

 

[DougEMG]

Over the 50 year life of a contract, the pandemic is just another blip, no different than the 2008 market crash, or 9/11 in 2001. Prices are going to drop in the short term, it is just a question of how long the lower prices last. Demand recovered for Disney after each of those events and I expect it will after this as well.

 

[bookwormde]

5/29 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 120-140% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

 

[bookwormde]

5/30 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 150-170% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site

 

[CastAStone]

Home prices are expected to drop about a point. I expect DVC to do roughly the same. But I’m guessing.

There are several reasons I don’t think the two are comparable. For one, no one NEEDS DVC. Everyone needs a place to live. For another, the depreciation and carrying costs of DVC make it an impractical arbitrage opportunity between any lower value and its expected future value for an investor (unless the bottom absolutely falls out).

As a result (and looking at past history) I’d expect DVC resale to behave not like the housing market but rather like the market for used luxury cars or used yachts - substantial drops during recessions, take longer to recover than the market writ large, but with a long enough recovery, becomes whole again.

 

[bookwormde]

5/31 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 20-40% of average*

For the week of 5/25 to 5/31 newly posted resale contracts at about 160-180% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site

 

[RoseGold]

I have been watching carefully and had put in two offers in the last week, but I think I'm out of the market for now. I was READY to buy, and now I am not. I just can't see buying until I know that Disney as it was will exist again.

I just canceled my fall trip, and I was surprised how sad it made me. We were looking forward to the Halloween party, but nobody will be passing out candy for a long time.

I do think prices will continue to fall. Hard to justify ticket prices and dues when so much is missing and no idea when/if Disney full strength will come back.

 

[becauseimnew]

I have been watching carefully and had put in two offers in the last week, but I think I'm out of the market for now. I was READY to buy, and now I am not. I just can't see buying until I know that Disney as it was will exist again.

I just canceled my fall trip, and I was surprised how sad it made me. We were looking forward to the Halloween party, but nobody will be passing out candy for a long time.

I do think prices will continue to fall. Hard to justify ticket prices and dues when so much is missing and no idea when/if Disney full strength will come back.

We too were ready to buy but I think we've decided to hold off until we know more about operational changes. We love Disney and are going back but I don't know when that will be.

 

[TinkB278]

We too were ready to buy but I think we've decided to hold off until we know more about operational changes. We love Disney and are going back but I don't know when that will be.

I’m in the same boat as both of you. I put in an offer last week but news of the dining plan being canceled through 9/2021 doesn’t make me feel good about anything being remotely normal any time soon although I guess that is to be expected as long as we don’t have a cure/vaccine.

I actually feel kind of thankful this whole ordeal happened prior to me buying DVC. My current thought process is that they are saying with globalization, pandemics like this are more likely than they once were, so I feel like DVC could be a risky and not very economical investment if we are to have events happen such as this one repeatedly. I feel safer just renting points and taking advantage of promos like free dining and not taking on such a big and long term financial commitment like DVC.

 

[lovethesun12]

I have been watching carefully and had put in two offers in the last week, but I think I'm out of the market for now. I was READY to buy, and now I am not. I just can't see buying until I know that Disney as it was will exist again.

I just canceled my fall trip, and I was surprised how sad it made me. We were looking forward to the Halloween party, but nobody will be passing out candy for a long time.

I do think prices will continue to fall. Hard to justify ticket prices and dues when so much is missing and no idea when/if Disney full strength will come back.

Same! I made a few offers I thought were reasonable but didn’t even receive a counter. It doesn’t seem like anyone really wants to budge and I’d rather wait it out than lock into due payments with all this uncertainty. If I have to pay a little higher because I waited until things got more sensible I’ll be very ok with that.

 

[Dawg74]

We are in the same boat as some of you here. We love the idea of DVC and have been considering it but we need to see some light at the end of the tunnel first. I still think the day will come where things will return to something similar to the way it was before but we are going to wait and see for now.

 

[Brian Noble]

When I posted earlier in this thread, I was mostly thinking about the impact of recession/depression on prices in the form of more motivated sellers into a market of fewer interested buyers. I don't think it occurred to me how much operational changes would contribute to increase the imbalance even further.

Of course, now that we are a few months into it, it makes perfect sense. My own family cancelled both a 7-night DCL cruise and a trip to Japan to see Tokyo, Kyoto, and TDL this summer. We are not planning to reschedule either in the foreseeable future.

But it goes much farther than that. Given some of the science I've read (enclosed spaces with long visit durations are highest risk) I don't expect to be in a sit-down restaurant or a movie theater for a good long time, let alone a cruise ship or a theme park with slow-moving indoor queues, 6 ft. distancing or not. And that's before even thinking about what it would take for me to feel comfortable being in an airplane for several hours.

 

[jkevinmcg]

I too feel the same as those who are pulling back for now. I made a few offers that were turned down or flat out ignored, but with the unknown operational impact on top of what appears to be a perfect storm of dismal situations (virus, riots and China), I'm pulling back until it appears that things are getting better.