I thought Chapek downplaying potential similarities between reopening procedures for different parks was interesting. It seems like he's trying to accomplish what the SVP for Disney Resorts was trying to accomplish at the OC Task Force Meeting a few days ago. They want to curtail any comparisons or speculations in the media. The reality is that if you look at the DPB post today, a lot of is aligns with what Shanghai is doing/did. I've been saying (and will keep saying) that we should be paying close attention to Shanghai
Disneyland to get an idea of to expect here. No, not every policy, practice, and procedure will come stateside, but I do think the larger ideas and restrictions will, assuming they have success with them. They'll of course be some changes accounting for cultural differences, but the larger ideas will travel here.
To caution, I'm talking about the restrictions and guidelines put in place, not the timeline of the closure. Obviously, it's a different country with a different culture and the effects of this pandemic vary drastically. We're already not in line with their timeline (by this point in their closure, Disneytown and SDLH were open again), but I wouldn't be surprised to see WDW's reopening accelerated relative SDL for a variety of factors (not the least of which, Chapek confirming the presence of government in the decisions regarding SDR's opening). SDL's closure will have lasted three and a half months. At least based on those I've talked to and the preparations at WDW, it does not seem to me that Disney thinks a 3.5 month or longer closure of every park in WDW is the likeliest outcome here (meaning no parks open in 3.5 months), especially given the State of Florida's eagerness to reopen its tourism industry. Disneyland may be a different story for that reason.
Also, remember that while DS does draw lots of locals, it still generates most of its traffic (especially its heavy spenders) from tourists (especially international tourists). Even for locals, it's more of a destination shopping district, so the curbside retail delivery we're seeing in other malls of Florida doesn't really make as much sense at DS. It is certainly not the most convenient "mall" in the Orlando metropolitan area. It's a different situation from SDL's Disneytown, given that Disneytown is 1) more conveniently accessible to the metro area and 2) pulls from a tremendously larger metro area. That's not to say DS won't reopen soon or first; I think as we approach the middle of the month we may hear more about DS reopening, but this would explain why DS isn't in the first wave of malls and shopping centers to "reopen."
As to the questions on positive contributions, I think that is more of a factor for parks already struggling like HKDL and even DLP. There's not a doubt in my mind that WDW
could make a "positive contribution" without international tourists. Again, we're not talking about profitability or break-even.
I haven't got a clue about HKDL and DLP, but with SDL opening next week, perhaps we'll see some reopenings accelerated if things go well there. I still think that Disney does believe a partial reopening of at least one of WDW's parks sometime in June is a distinct possibility. To be clear, this doesn't mean the first day of June or even by the middle of the month nor is this a firm date that can't change. This call didn't change my assessment that WDW is preparing to be ready for a reopening at some point in June if it is safe to do so at this time. My guess is that TDR (who's Ikspiari retail complex is semi-open right now) will follow WDW's lead (this aligns with the State of Emergency in Japan running through the end of this month as of now). Disneyland, on the other hand, will take much longer, given the stricter government guidelines we're seeing in CA. Could be August or later.