Walt Disney Company Quarter 2 Earnings Report 2020

[Jroceagles]

If a job calls you back to work, and you refuse to go back, you automatically lose unemployment.

Yep...job abandonment

 

[Lumpy1106]

Dated tickets will be used in Shanghai but that may not be used everywhere.

Not really understanding how local AP's would be shut out in this scenario. People staying on-property get to book AP's 60 days out, everyone else 30 days out. So, pick which days you'll be in which parks when you do this. I sincerely doubt they will hit the max allowed capacity (be that 50%, 75% or whatever they decide) at all parks even if you just showed up, AP in hand. You may not get into the park you want that way, but you would get in.

 

[BridgetR3]

I can see them originally opening up to only hotel guests tho..

 

[Tjddis]

Agreed.

I think they did a very good job threading a very tough needle. Presented confidence in their brand, assured investors they are still solvent and practicing responsible and thoughtful leadership. No denying the negative impact this as all had but confident for a rebound. Selfishly would have loved more info on US parks, but obviously they are playing it safe and close to the vest
The 2 most interesting comments to me were the one about not opening until the parks can contribute something positive to the bottom line and the one about being confident they can fill to whatever capacity gets set. Somebody somewhere is crunching serious numbers trying to figure out how many are going to go no matter the mood in the country and the response to any limits and who they would keep out should they need to. Would love to be a fly on the wall for that. Must be fascinating.

 

[Jrb1979]

I think that will lift when FL hits phase 2 possibly phase 3 at the latest....and if those states are in Phase 1 and close to Phase 2

In Canada I would be surprised if they do lift the 14 day quarantine. We are taking this very slowly. Ontario Canada hasn't even announced when reopening is going to happen yet.

 

[Tjddis]

They seemed very confident in the call today that, due to pent-up demand, they would reach whatever capacity cap they set, be it 10% or 50%. I might have missed if they gave a concrete reason for that confidence, but I'm guessing it's based on current bookings.

Somebody somewhere in the organization must have info regarding how far they can push their most loyal customers before they cut ties. Can’t possibly be bookings. For example I am willing to wait as long as I have to before pulling the plug. Would rather pay cancellation fee than pay the whole thing! Put in the effort and not enjoy it. I can’t be alone in that thinking...

 

[BryGuy415]

Somebody somewhere in the organization must have info regarding how far they can push their most loyal customers before they cut ties. Can’t possibly be bookings. For example I am willing to wait as long as I have to before pulling the plug. Would rather pay cancellation fee than pay the whole thing! Put in the effort and not enjoy it. I can’t be alone in that thinking...

I would imagine current bookings, as well as the rate of how many new bookings in the near future are factored into part of their confidence. Even if some pull the plug last minute that would allow for local AP's to book reservations if that's the system they go with here in the US

 

[whiporee]

It’s funny how people hear what they want to hear. I heard it and got more confident for June 1, because if they were going to cancel June, today was a good time to do it — already bad news from the parks, no reason to hide it. The fact they’re starting Shanghai with six days notice also gives me confidence, as does the fact they admitted how much the parks were losing because it gives them cover for opening ASAP. And that they were confident about attendance when they do open.

I admit my judgement may be colored by a June 2 reservation. But after hearing what they said, I didn’t hear anything that made me more concerned than I was when it started.

 

[DavidHobart]

Not exactly...

Book value can often have little to do with borrowing power, which is governed more by a. free cash flow and/or b. fire-sale prices of tangible assets.

 

[SaintsManiac]

Pete and Ryno are discussing it live.

 

[tlmadden73]

Somebody somewhere in the organization must have info regarding how far they can push their most loyal customers before they cut ties. Can’t possibly be bookings. For example I am willing to wait as long as I have to before pulling the plug. Would rather pay cancellation fee than pay the whole thing! Put in the effort and not enjoy it. I can’t be alone in that thinking...

Right. They can’t be going on current bookings. A lot of those bookings will get cancelled the minute they announce their opening “restrictions”.
That’s what I am waiting for to determine if it’s worth going.
Disney will have to throw me a big bone to keep my reservation for Mid-June if things are drastically cut back.

 

[jlwhitney]

It’s funny how people hear what they want to hear. I heard it and got more confident for June 1, because if they were going to cancel June, today was a good time to do it — already bad news from the parks, no reason to hide it. The fact they’re starting Shanghai with six days notice also gives me confidence, as does the fact they admitted how much the parks were losing because it gives them cover for opening ASAP. And that they were confident about attendance when they do open.

I admit my judgement may be colored by a June 2 reservation. But after hearing what they said, I didn’t hear anything that made me more concerned than I was when it started.

I just want to know what the restrictions are going to be and status of water parks. We are booked end of june for a water park trip , we are silver AP so otherwise blacked out from reg parks. Need to figure out if its going to be enjoyable or not, assuming they open.

Next trip is a week toward end of sept , which was going to be disney/legoland and aquatica. Hopeful that will be enjoyable , since much can change between now and then,

 

[craigkerstiens]

The positive contribution margin has been mentioned a lot of times here and it's an interesting one. The exact numbers are going to be hard to get at, but my suspicion is positive contribution means not losing as much as they are currently. The parks even in a closed state have some level of fixed costs. Furloughed workers also have a cost, as Disney is still paying healthcare for them.

The question becomes at how low of a capacity can they open and start to reduce the overall loses they are incurring. It's going to be incredibly complicated to figure out that math because it isn't just about park capacity. The resorts are big money makers, but if they open with only 50% of their rooms filled that could actually make things even worse. But if they were to open resorts at 5% capacity and have all the resorts full and get priority to park access, that may actually prove a big improvement.

They're going to be close to the chest on the details of each factor, but my intrepretation-parks do not have to start turning a true profit to re-open they just have to not be making a bigger hurt on profit by opening too small or by negatively impacting another area like resorts.

 

[Sandiz08]

I just can’t see them giving only 6 days notice to WDW resort guests. What they’ve been doing with cash bookings is acceptable. Hopefully they just stop canceling at some point and that is an indicator of things opening up in the near future without everyone having to wait for the announcement.

 

[DGsAtBLT]

I just can’t see them giving only 6 days notice to WDW resort guests. What they’ve been doing with cash bookings is acceptable. Hopefully they just stop canceling at some point and that is an indicator of things opening up in the near future without everyone having to wait for the announcement.

They’ve already done less twice for cancellation purposes. The second time should have been less shocking as the parks were already closed, but still.

Hopefully they do give more notice but they may not.

 

[LSUmiss]

It’s funny how people hear what they want to hear. I heard it and got more confident for June 1, because if they were going to cancel June, today was a good time to do it — already bad news from the parks, no reason to hide it. The fact they’re starting Shanghai with six days notice also gives me confidence, as does the fact they admitted how much the parks were losing because it gives them cover for opening ASAP. And that they were confident about attendance when they do open.

I admit my judgement may be colored by a June 2 reservation. But after hearing what they said, I didn’t hear anything that made me more concerned than I was when it started.

Didn’t think about it that way!

 

[Eric Smith]

I have my doubts. They have cancelled almost all festivals, concerts and large gatherings for the year. They are doing the Canada Day fireworks virtually. I was just told by my manager, head office expects the limiting of people into stores is staying til September. It sucks for me as I had 2 trips to Busch Gardens Virginia planned.

Not to go too far off topic, but how do virtual fireworks work? Are they just going to stream a video of last year?

 

[whodatdare]

Anything to read into this or was it just a misspeak? "Standard" capacity at MK would be around 50k, which means 25% of that would be 12.5k people, which is unheard of low and I could see working. But 25% of the max capacity would be like a September MNSSHP Morning/Afternoon 5 years ago. I thought talks were of opening at 50% though, not 25. Either way you slice 25 there will be a lot less people in the parks. 50% of max capacity would mean almost nothing though.

If they truly do the reservation system here like they are there, I wonder if passholders will be given another option to get a refund for the rest of their pass. I won't do it regardless because even if it does make it difficult for me and devalue my pass, I know I'll still want to go when I can anyway. Most people are not like me though.

I don't know, but I just re-listened to it... right at around the 50 minute mark he DISTINCTLY says "a percentage of "TYPICAL CROWDS". Not Max capacity. And it was definitely intentionally done.

 

[RamblingMad]

I don't know, but I just re-listened to it... right at around the 50 minute mark he DISTINCTLY says "a percentage of "TYPICAL CROWDS". Not Max capacity. And it was definitely intentionally done.

It sounded like he was reading from prepared notes.

 

[rteetz]

Pete and Ryno are discussing it live.

Pete is so stuck on Epcot having construction done by next year. That simply isn’t going to happen.