Riviera Pricing Released

[crvetter]

Looking at the point chart, a week in a preferred studio in Adventure season is 134 points.
In Choice 148: +10%
In Dream 162: +21%
In Magic 190: +42%
In Premier 243: +81%

Looking at 2019 BLT studio Lake view, the increments for the seasons are: +4%, +15%, +24%, +62%
For VGF: +3%, +24%, +34%, +83%

Not sure if my math makes sense and I haven't found the rolled back 2020 charts for comparison, but it seems the pattern is not dissimilar to the current point charts for the other resorts. If anything, Adventure season will be even cheaper than the other resorts. Has DVC given up on rebalancing the seasons?

I would assume if they do ever rebalance across seasons it will be across all the WDW properties at the same time. Maybe 2021... which is a better tool then just increasing studios and 1 bedrooms since some seasons sit relatively empty way past 7 months.

 

[anomamatt]

There will be no guaranteed weeks for tower studios. It was my first question to my guide. :\

There goes my plan!

 

[crvetter]

With regards to the dues, I wonder if they have built in the increased wages that are still coming while other resorts will be seeing increases for a couple of years yet.

My view is that Riviera does have a higher average daily wage cost for this operating year than the other resorts, simply because Riviera will be opening after the next wage increase so likely budgets more on an average daily basis then the other resorts do for 2019. Though I'm not sure it explains the $1 point difference between it and the next grouping. But I think it might mean less of an increase between 2020 and 2021 for Riviera than the other resorts, but still remain in the lead.

 

[TexasChick123]

I agree about the MF's. They're all going up a ton in the next couple of years. I foresee a large increase in all the other properties while Riviera just kind of hangs out around $8.31. If your only hang up on buying there is because of the MF's, you will be shocked when all the other properties rise so much. If your issues are with resale restrictions, worried about the gondola, etc., well that's completely different.

 

[TexasChick123]

My view is that Riviera does have a higher average daily wage cost for this operating year than the other resorts, simply because Riviera will be opening after the next wage increase so likely budgets more on an average daily basis then the other resorts do for 2019. Though I'm not sure it explains the $1 point difference between it and the next grouping. But I think it might mean less of an increase between 2020 and 2021 for Riviera than the other resorts, but still remain in the lead.

Exactly! We cross-posted.

 

[Phatscott25]

There will be no guaranteed weeks for tower studios. It was my first question to my guide. :\

Well darn so much for my plans too

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I would have thought there were enough Tower Studios to do fixed weeks. Now, maybe set it for max 2 per week, sure, but it didn't seem as ridiculous as if they'd tried GWs at AKV-Club.

 

[ljmiii]

There will be no guaranteed weeks for tower studios. It was my first question to my guide. :\

Did your guide say if all the rooms besides tower studios will have GWs? I'm yet another DVC'er who initially thought I would buy at Riviera, thought "no" after the resale changes were announced, and came back to maybe if I bought a resale GW tower week that should hold its value.

 

[skier_pete]

Interesting to see the point charts out of course. Not particularly surprised by this. I would very much like to see the distribution as to how many rooms in each of the view categories, and how many dedicated studios/1-bedrooms versus lockoffs. Also I would want to know if the preferred view means you are going to see the fireworks or not. (A "lake" view in this case is NOT what I would call a "preferred" view.)

I agree that much like CCV they are anticipating the dues going up with more wage increases, and also avoiding the trouble they got from overpricing the dues.

Not that I am going to buy there - but at least owners here don't have to worry about Cabins/Bungalows acting like a leech on your ability to book rooms. The "Tower Suites" as others point out will be in very high demand and will rarely last to non-owners - I realize maybe not quite as appealing as the AKV value rooms, but still to couples and single a very appealing prospect. If they have a decent number of dedicated studios, at least getting a room in a studio for owners shouldn't be too big a problem.

 

[anomamatt]

Did your guide say if all the rooms besides tower studios will have GWs? I'm yet another DVC'er who initially thought I would buy at Riviera, thought "no" after the resale changes were announced, and came back to maybe if I bought a resale GW tower week that should hold its value.

I asked about GWs and was also told none for Tower Studios. All of the other rooms will have GWs available, including deluxe studios.

The only other interesting things I found out: RVA owners can start booking (for Dec 16-on) on April 10. Current incentives set to expire at the end of April.

 

[TexasChick123]

I asked about GWs and was also told none for Tower Studios. All of the other rooms will have GWs available, including deluxe studios.

I was told the same. No to tower studios and yes to everything else.

 

[crvetter]

Interesting to see the point charts out of course. Not particularly surprised by this. I would very much like to see the distribution as to how many rooms in each of the view categories, and how many dedicated studios/1-bedrooms versus lockoffs. Also I would want to know if the preferred view means you are going to see the fireworks or not. (A "lake" view in this case is NOT what I would call a "preferred" view.)

I agree that much like CCV they are anticipating the dues going up with more wage increases, and also avoiding the trouble they got from overpricing the dues.

Not that I am going to buy there - but at least owners here don't have to worry about Cabins/Bungalows acting like a leech on your ability to book rooms. The "Tower Suites" as others point out will be in very high demand and will rarely last to non-owners - I realize maybe not quite as appealing as the AKV value rooms, but still to couples and single a very appealing prospect. If they have a decent number of dedicated studios, at least getting a room in a studio for owners shouldn't be too big a problem.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/m...n-dated-01-19-19.3734585/page-6#post-60275465

According to this post, which is accurate and no reason not to think so since its coming from the filings with the state

"Also be aware that according to the documents I have seen (I cannot figure out how I can provide any pages on the site), the Riviera Resort is going to have 341 vacation homes consisting of: 12 GVs, 148 2BR lock-offs, 90 dedicated 2BRs, 29 dedicated 1BRs, 38 dedicated studios, and 24 Tower Studios."

So only a small amount of dedicated studios but a large amount of 2BR lock-offs.

 

[ELMC]

So only a small amount of dedicated studios but a large amount of 2BR lock-offs.

Ut oh. Where have we heard this before?

 

[jerseyduke]

The Tower Studios are particularly interesting to me. I am sure they will be hard to get, but I (can) do a lot of weekend trips, with a flexible schedule, so I might check out the resale market once it develops in a year.

Anyone want to opine on the following?

1. I see resale contracts in the area of 80$ per point in a year or so. If Saratoga Springs is going for around 100 and can be used at 14 resorts, why would you pay ore for points that can only be used at 1 resort? (Unless of course you just have to stay there).

2. Will swapping into Riviera become very hard to do. Every resale contract being restricted to there means as time goes on, a lot of points will not be able to trade out of Riviera.

3. Perhaps the resale market will not develop quickly. If what I think will be the prices for these contracts does come to fruition, anyone who finances may be underwater for years.

4. People who are more knowledgeable use the resale market more, and knowledgeable ppl are not going to be buying points that have NO PERKS, and can only be used at 1 resort if the prices are comparable to other properties.

5. How much of the dues are associated with the Skyliner

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

My view is that Riviera does have a higher average daily wage cost for this operating year than the other resorts, simply because Riviera will be opening after the next wage increase so likely budgets more on an average daily basis then the other resorts do for 2019. Though I'm not sure it explains the $1 point difference between it and the next grouping. But I think it might mean less of an increase between 2020 and 2021 for Riviera than the other resorts, but still remain in the lead.

MF's are supposed to be covering actual costs though, not created to linger at a certain level because they'll be going up then. That is what they all do.

I too will be interested to see what the breakdown is good them.

 

[ljmiii]

1. I see resale contracts in the area of 80$ per point in a year or so.

Historically, resale contracts haven't dropped significantly until much longer after sales begin. So 5 years yes, 1 year no.

2. Will swapping into Riviera become very hard to do.

Initially yes as both Riviera and other DVC owners will want to try the 'new hotness'. Remember that DVC can't allow points reservations on the whole resort until much later. Then there may well be a fallow period until the number of resale Riviera points becomes significant.

4. People who are more knowledgeable use the resale market more, and knowledgeable ppl are not going to be buying points that have NO PERKS, and can only be used at 1 resort if the prices are comparable to other properties.

It's all a question of price. We know people will buy resale at $1/pt and won't at $188/pt. I'm expecting the spread between direct and resale for Riviera to become quite significant in 5 years. Thus my reluctance to buy direct at Riviera (except maybe a GW that will [comparatively] hold its value).

 

[ELMC]

The Tower Studios are particularly interesting to me. I am sure they will be hard to get, but I (can) do a lot of weekend trips, with a flexible schedule, so I might check out the resale market once it develops in a year.

Anyone want to opine on the following?

1. I see resale contracts in the area of 80$ per point in a year or so. If Saratoga Springs is going for around 100 and can be used at 14 resorts, why would you pay ore for points that can only be used at 1 resort? (Unless of course you just have to stay there).

2. Will swapping into Riviera become very hard to do. Every resale contract being restricted to there means as time goes on, a lot of points will not be able to trade out of Riviera.

3. Perhaps the resale market will not develop quickly. If what I think will be the prices for these contracts does come to fruition, anyone who finances may be underwater for years.

4. People who are more knowledgeable use the resale market more, and knowledgeable ppl are not going to be buying points that have NO PERKS, and can only be used at 1 resort if the prices are comparable to other properties.

5. How much of the dues are associated with the Skyliner

I'll opine on number one, because it's really the only one in the list that I have formed an opinion about.

I think the resale price is going to be higher. The people who are buying Riviera are doing so because they want to stay there. They want the 11 month window for Tower Studios. They want home resort advantage in general. So for many resale buyers, the restrictions won't actually matter. Their choice will essentially be binary. Purchase Riviera direct for $170+ a point. Purchase Riviera resale for $xx a point. The real question is, for those people who don't care about trading and are buying to stay at this beautiful new resort, how much of a discount would be necessary in order to forego all of the other benefits that come from buying direct. My guess is that it is less than 50%.

The other issue is that many of the contracts that go up for resale might be financed, which means that sellers will have a floor price that they can go down to before it just easier to let Disney foreclose. The thing I keep trying to remember in all of this is that my motivations are not necessarily other people's motivations. I'm not particularly interested in Riviera for my own personal use. I'm also deeply troubled by the resale restrictions. Not everybody agrees or cares.

 

[Brett Wyman]

Why would anyone buy into a property where that's the only place you could stay? I just don't get it.

 

[ELMC]

I'm expecting the spread between direct and resale for Riviera to become quite significant in 5 years. Thus my reluctance to buy direct at Riviera (except maybe a GW that will [comparatively] hold its value).

You're probably right. But don't forget that the direct price in five years will be well north of where it is now. So even if the delta is significant, the high end of the range will be higher which means that the low end will likely be higher as well.

 

[crvetter]

MF's are supposed to be covering actual costs though, not created to linger at a certain level because they'll be going up then. That is what they all do.

I too will be interested to see what the breakdown is good them.

Yeah my point is that the actual costs are likely going to be higher for Riviera on the salary expectation because the average salary cost per day for Riviera is higher than that of all the WDW resorts; I wasn't suggesting it was artificially inflated (As an aside actual costs aren't truly known, DVC sets an estimated cost for the line items, for instance they likely don't have a final tax assessment; also Capital Reserves can be freely set since DVC owns the entire resort).

The minimum wages the resorts are working with for this year are:

January & February - $11
March through August - $12
September through December - $13

So for a hypothetical minimum wage employee at the existing DVC's is costing MF on average (2/12)*($11) + (6/12)*($12) + (4/12)*($13) = $12.17. While for Riviera it is $13 for the same hypothetical employee which if everyone was paid minimum wage (which we know isn't the case but likely the case for a majority of the positions) that is about a 7% increase in the employee costs. So as I said this explains some of the $1 difference but not all of it.

As an aside the 2020 budgets, for all resorts, will have that hypothetical minimum wage employee averaging (9/12)*($13) + (3/12)*($14) = $13.25, since the next raise is October 2020. So the current WDW resorts, excluding Riviera, should see a YOY increase of about 9%, while Riviera will see just about 2% for this line item. For comparison 2018 to 2019 saw about a 21% increase in the per hour rate for this hypothetical employee (2018 - using $10 an hour on average, 2019 - stated above).

As I stated above the tax is likely estimated on the conservative side (just like it was for CCV) since the tax assessor doesn't finalize the number until after construction is completed. If I recall correctly, this was the reason between 2017 and 2018 you saw CCV MF drop because it's tax assessment was lower than expected/budgeted. Also why you saw a lower overall increase to CCV MF between 2018 and 2019 (no where near the level of the other resorts).