The VGF 2 pricing thread

[DeeBee3]

Unless it's the deal of a lifetime, I'm not buying anything, but I have been enjoying this festive spirit with everyone!

I'll still be anxiously checking the site and the emails from my guide. I guess it's just FOMO.

 

[davidl81]

My fearless prediction, minimum of 150,000 points will be sold in first month (and quite frankly it would not surprise me is it comes close to 200,000).

I don’t know if sales will be that high. Park attendance still drives most DVC sales and I’d think you need park attendance back to pre covid levels to get 150k+ points.

 

[SusieQ93]

It’s been fun chatting about it, but I’m one of those people FOMO has the opposite effect on. Playing hard to get doesn’t make me want it more, it actually kills my desire. I almost placed a bid on a resale Poly contract last night out of spite, but got talked out of it.

Right?! I’m so the same! I’m second guessing now like “am I sure I want this?”

 

[HappyThoughtsTees]

I haven't been following this thread for long as I have no skin in this game, but I'm surprised by the number of people who believe that Disney follows the logic of supply and demand. Disney and logic have not always had a working relationship. Grand Floridian is touted as the most luxurious WDW DVC property. Who cares if they have 2M points to move, they'll sit on those points and run incentives the future if they must. If that price per point is under $255 (before incentives) I'll be shocked...especially if it's introduced without restrictions. You want unrestricted points that aren't in Hawaii? You are going to pay the premium for them. Can't wait for tomorrow.

 

[Marionnette]

I bought BLT for $110 / point...

We bought BLT in 2011 for $112. That seemed sooo high then!
We don't speak aloud what we paid resale for our VGC last October.
But we live in western Canada and love Disneyland too.

I bought VGF resale @$141 in 2017. The resort was sold out in 2015 at a base price of $165 pp. These predicted prices for VGF2 make my head spin!

 

[kdm31091]

DVC creates a lot of FOMO and emotion but on a practical level, to be honest I don't see the huge appeal of this particular resort/expansion, considering BLT offers most of the same advantages of VGF and more flexibility in room choices, along with a far better points chart so your money goes further. If you have an attachment to VGF, I get it, but there's really not a huge selling point for this flip unless you really want studios near MK and don't like BLT (or even Poly for that matter). Keep in mind you can still enjoy VGF's dining and shopping, vibe, etc without owning there.

Because the product offers only pretty basic studios in the new building, you'd think the price should be lower to reflect that, but I really doubt it will be. Yes, you have options in the VGF1 building but now you have that many more people fighting for them. If it's priced at $255 a point I just can't see the reason to spend it when you have several others options in the MK area that cost less and offer essentially the same location.

I have no problem with VGF and we'd like to try it out and stay there someday but I don't see much reason to own there because the point chart is very high and BLT is a considerably less expensive option (in initial price and point chart) for basically the same location.

 

[RoseGold]

I just listened to a podcast defend pricing at $207, and I have to say I was tempted for a minute.

But I don't trust DVC's future construction plans. If they're willing to sell VGF that low, then who knows what they will do next? No reason they couldn't print points by slapping up another loser, off site property. Or worse, convert a failed one somewhere. VGF pricing low is a bad sign. It means DVC isn't holding its spread against resale, and is desperate enough to be competing in resale. The extensive ROFR has shown they are already moving towards this strategy.

DVC has shown no loyalty to Blue Cards. They couldn't be bothered to slap a $100 discount on the Incredipass, and now they have really let DVC down, by not fighting for Blue Cards to buy APs at all, even Pixie Dust passes. I can buy my own evening ticket when the year-round party, hard-ticket strategy returns, which I don't think will take long.

If VGF opens at $207, it will send shockwaves through resale. Maybe I'll be ready to buy a resale Poly contract or a resale BLT. Maybe I'll be chilling at the July Halloween party at resale Poly instead.

 

[davidl81]

I just listened to a podcast defend pricing at $207, and I have to say I was tempted for a minute.

But I don't trust DVC's future construction plans. If they're willing to sell VGF that low, then who knows what they will do next? No reason they couldn't print points by slapping up another loser, off site property. Or worse, convert a failed one somewhere. VGF pricing low is a bad sign. It means DVC isn't holding its spread against resale, and is desperate enough to be competing in resale. The extensive ROFR has shown they are already moving towards this strategy.

DVC has shown no loyalty to Blue Cards. They couldn't be bothered to slap a $100 discount on the Incredipass, and now they have really let DVC down, by not fighting for Blue Cards to buy APs at all, even Pixie Dust passes. I can buy my own evening ticket when the year-round party, hard-ticket strategy returns, which I don't think will take long.

If VGF opens at $207, it will send shockwaves through resale. Maybe I'll be ready to buy a resale Poly contract or a resale BLT. Maybe I'll be chilling at the July Halloween party at resale Poly instead.

I love how DVC has manufactured the idea in peoples head that $207pp is “low”. That is the pixie dust magic right there, they can list VGF at $207 and a majority of people on here will consider that a steal. When 2.5 years ago RIV opened at $188.
Remember VGF opened in 2013 at $145 and factoring inflation that would be $175 in today dollars. So even opening at $207 would be an actual 18% increase in opening prices when factoring for inflation. Yet DVC has made people think that’s a “low” price.

 

[RamblinWreck]

I just listened to a podcast defend pricing at $207, and I have to say I was tempted for a minute.

But I don't trust DVC's future construction plans. If they're willing to sell VGF that low, then who knows what they will do next? No reason they couldn't print points by slapping up another loser, off site property. Or worse, convert a failed one somewhere. VGF pricing low is a bad sign. It means DVC isn't holding its spread against resale, and is desperate enough to be competing in resale. The extensive ROFR has shown they are already moving towards this strategy.

DVC has shown no loyalty to Blue Cards. They couldn't be bothered to slap a $100 discount on the Incredipass, and now they have really let DVC down, by not fighting for Blue Cards to buy APs at all, even Pixie Dust passes. I can buy my own evening ticket when the year-round party, hard-ticket strategy returns, which I don't think will take long.

If VGF opens at $207, it will send shockwaves through resale. Maybe I'll be ready to buy a resale Poly contract or a resale BLT. Maybe I'll be chilling at the July Halloween party at resale Poly instead.

I don't think DVC direct maintains a spread vs resale. Resale maintains a spread vs direct prices.

And really, DVC sets both of those prices.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Now, I want to see the luggage gift and know the price! My guide is calling me in the afternoon and I’m wondering if I should have him call earlier.

Didnt you hear? Its a backpack....LOL

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Wonder if the Member Add-On tool will be available for VGF2 tomorrow? If so, that might be the easiest / fastest way to go for those of us prepared to pay cash. (I'm not really interested in joining the 'crowd' tomorrow, though).

You sure no how to kill a party! Will miss you....

 

[Sandisw]

Wonder if the Member Add-On tool will be available for VGF2 tomorrow? If so, that might be the easiest / fastest way to go for those of us prepared to pay cash. (I'm not really interested in joining the 'crowd' tomorrow, though).

You mean you are not going to check the website after midnight like me??

Just kidding. I won’t be doing that!!

 

[Nabas]

If VGF opens at $207, it will send shockwaves through resale.

Maybe that’s exactly what Disney wants.

Disney keeps taking away resale benefits and adding restrictions, yet resale prices remain high. Disney seems determined to crush the resale market.

 

[RamblinWreck]

Maybe that’s exactly what Disney wants.

Disney keeps taking away resale benefits and adding restrictions, yet resale prices remain high. Disney seems determined to crush the resale market.

If they were that determined to crush resale, you'd think they would actually have some blue card benefits.

 

[smmora]

You mean you are not going to check the website after midnight like me??

Just kidding. I won’t be doing that!!

I will, but technically that's only 9pm for me

 

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

I have to confess that after reading this thread I am actually surprised how tight some of you seem to be with your guide. I have a very nice guide but I really don't have much contact with him. If only he knew how easy it would be to persuade me to buy more points Thank goodness he isn't reaching out and pushing me over the fence. LOL.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

No reason they couldn't print points by slapping up another loser, off site property.

I mean, other than the fact that nobody would buy it.

They have a winner off-site property in Ko Olina and they still can't sell the damn thing.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I have to confess that after reading this thread I am actually surprised how tight some of you seem to be with your guide. I have a very nice guide but I really don't have much contact with him. If only he knew how easy it would be to persuade me to buy more points Thank goodness he isn't reaching out and pushing me over the fence. LOL.

For some, I think the relationship is more akin to that with a clergyman or recovery sponsor...but with an enabling/codependence component.

 

[Nabas]

If they were that determined to crush resale, you'd think they would actually have some blue card benefits.

Adding blue card benefits costs them money.

Taking away white card benefits saves them money.

 

[Marionnette]

Maybe that’s exactly what Disney wants.

Disney keeps taking away resale benefits and adding restrictions, yet resale prices remain high. Disney seems determined to crush the resale market.

There are other ways to crush the resale market. The most current restriction was probably the most effective to date but still isn't draconian enough to kill resales. And I think it may have had a small impact on RIV sales, otherwise we would have seen a VGF2 conversion to a brand new condo association like CCV. I won't list my thoughts on other methods to discourage resale purchases because I don't want to give Disney any ideas.

But OTOH, DVC needs a robust resale industry to lend legitimacy to its high purchase price. I believe that ROFR helps to keep the resale prices artificially high in order the keep the margin between direct and resale as small as possible.