RoFR back??

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Isn’t the definition on insanity doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results ?

Maybe you only get bit once by ROFR.
If not, how many times do you try?

What is your time worth?

Maybe, but there are literally hundreds of examples on this board of people making another low offer after getting ROFRed and it passing.

 

[chalee94]

What is your time worth?

Right now I am in the group that has dropped out. Not worth it to me to get more points.

But yes, for some with tons of money, they should go straight to direct to save time and they will also benefit more from the discounts on larger contracts.

For those looking at resale, they are clearly looking to save some money and are willing for it to take a little longer even in a best case scenario.

But just because a few have the addonitis bad enough to pay whatever it takes, doesn't mean that is true across the board.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

Maybe, but there are literally hundreds of examples on this board of people making another low offer after getting ROFRed and it passing.

Today,
But what will tomorrow bring

 

[Robbie Cottam]

Right now I am in the group that has dropped out. Not worth it to me to get more points.

But yes, for some with tons of money, they should go straight to direct to save time and they will also benefit more from the discounts on larger contracts.

For those looking at resale, they are clearly looking to save some money and are willing for it to take a little longer even in a best case scenario.

But just because a few have the addonitis bad enough to pay whatever it takes, doesn't mean that is true across the board.

Not says you have to go straight to direct…..
I’m actually considering resale for the first time in almost 20 years….

What I’m saying,
Put some thought into you offer….
If it is worth it to you to lose a contract in ROFR 1,2, or 5 times have at it!

But each time is a month you are not using those points ….

I would be happy paying more to make sure I passed the first time.

How much more…. I honestly haven’t done the research, it before I made an offer I would

 

[Cartman3132]

Not says you have to go straight to direct…..
I’m actually considering resale for the first time in almost 20 years….

What I’m saying,
Put some thought into you offer….
If it is worth it to you to lose a contract in ROFR 1,2, or 5 times have at it!

But each time is a month you are not using those points ….

I would be happy paying more to make sure I passed the first time.

How much more…. I honestly haven’t done the research, it before I made an offer I would

Your take on resale this entire thread is so far off it's wild. Just because a contract gets ROFR'd for a price point today doesn't mean it gets ROFR'd for that price everytime, just like if you make a higher offer like you say you would it doesn't guarantee it passes. I just saw 2 AKL contracts for 100/160 points just passed for $100pp today, WELL below the average it's selling for.

Disney didn't have a rhyme or reason before, they have an even worse rhyme or reason this time it seems, prices are all over the place.

You're a blue card guy, we get it.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

Your take on resale this entire thread is so far off it's wild. Just because a contract gets ROFR'd for a price point today doesn't mean it gets ROFR'd for that price everytime, just like if you make a higher offer like you say you would it doesn't guarantee it passes. I just saw 2 AKL contracts for 100/160 points just passed for $100pp today, WELL below the average it's selling for.

Disney didn't have a rhyme or reason before, they have an even worse rhyme or reason this time it seems, prices are all over the place.

You're a blue card guy, we get it.

Actually, I have two blue cards.

Just a few weeks ago, I was TOLD that DISNEY WILL NEVER EXERCISE ROFR AGAIN, by the brain trust

Disney has no published formula for ROFR.... that is true....
It is equally true that the only variable a buyer can control is price.....
There is, however, a point where it makes ZERO economic sense for Disney to take a deal.
That number is somewhere above what the current market is trading at.

Unless you are going to start asking the seller unit number.

Congratulations, a contract passed today, well below market!
Someone got lucky!
Are you going to take that chance tomorrow....

I'm a huge supporter of trying to pick up anything with a lowball offer.....
That having been said, don't be shocked when Disney snatches back up

My point has been and will continue to be, regardless of how wild you think it is, Disney will snatch low balls when it is the best for them to do so.

Your best bet to pass ROFR has always been and will continue to be a reasonable offer....

 

[Cartman3132]

Actually, I have two blue cards.

Just a few weeks ago, I was TOLD that DISNEY WILL NEVER EXERCISE ROFR AGAIN, by the brain trust

Disney has no published formula for ROFR.... that is true....
It is equally true that the only variable a buyer can control is price.....
There is, however, a point where it makes ZERO economic sense for Disney to take a deal.
That number is somewhere above what the current market is trading at.

Unless you are going to start asking the seller unit number.

Congratulations, a contract passed today, well below market!
Someone got lucky!
Are you going to take that chance tomorrow....

I'm a huge supporter of trying to pick up anything with a lowball offer.....
That having been said, don't be shocked when Disney snatches back up

My point has been and will continue to be, regardless of how wild you think it is, Disney will snatch low balls when it is the best for them to do so.

Your best bet to pass ROFR has always been and will continue to be a reasonable offer....

Oh sorry, 2, extra 5% at Earl of Sandwich for you

"Someone got lucky" he says as more contracts than not that have been taken at lower than average price of Disney exercising their ROFR the last week.

Are they taking back more contracts than the last 6 months, absolutely. Are they taking back a number that's going to raise the price, 100% not as the market is flooded with resale contracts and rentals from people who are trying to wait out the basement pricing/economy (that we're not addressing like the third rail)

You don't want to believe it, I know because we talked about it already, the only reason they outpaced their direct sales was due to the GFV discount making the cost barely above resale. If the GFV was still priced at $200+ the sales numbers would be nowhere close. Disney isn't dumb, they're not gonna reduce their dues intake in order to take on more contracts to try to flip at $200+ that no one is going to buy just to raise resale by $10 a point.

There is no reasonable offer at this point, the market is all over the place. I'm not gonna bid $130/pp for Animal Kingdom or go buy direct at $200+ when I know for a fact people are getting the contracts between $100-$110......which they still are.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

Oh sorry, 2, extra 5% at Earl of Sandwich for you

"Someone got lucky" he says as more contracts than not that have been taken at lower than average price of Disney exercising their ROFR the last week.

Are they taking back more contracts than the last 6 months, absolutely. Are they taking back a number that's going to raise the price, 100% not as the market is flooded with resale contracts and rentals from people who are trying to wait out the basement pricing/economy (that we're not addressing like the third rail)

You don't want to believe it, I know because we talked about it already, the only reason they outpaced their direct sales was due to the GFV discount making the cost barely above resale. If the GFV was still priced at $200+ the sales numbers would be nowhere close. Disney isn't dumb, they're not gonna reduce their dues intake in order to take on more contracts to try to flip at $200+ that no one is going to buy just to raise resale by $10 a point.

There is no reasonable offer at this point, the market is all over the place. I'm not gonna bid $130/pp for Animal Kingdom or go buy direct at $200+ when I know for a fact people are getting the contracts between $100-$110......which they still are.

If we talked about it already why re-hash it? to attack me because you don't like my view point(s) or because I'm saying something you don't like?

If we didn't agree once, drop it and move on...

It is ok if we don't agree, clearly one of us will be wrong....
I don't care if it is me..... clearly you do....

 

[Jwaire]

Are they taking back more contracts than the last 6 months, absolutely. Are they taking back a number that's going to raise the price, 100% not as the market is flooded with resale contracts and rentals from people who are trying to wait out the basement pricing/economy (that we're not addressing like the third rail)

Your definition of flooded and my definition of flooded must be different.

As of today, the largest resale broker reports ...

08 active GCV listings
10 active HHI listings
13 active RIV listings
14 active VBR listings
15 active AUL listings
15 active BRV listings
18 active PVB listings

21 active GFV listings
27 active BCV listings
37 active AKV listings
38 active CCV listings
38 active BWV listings

68 active BLT listings
69 active OKW listings
74 active SSR listings

They seem to sell around ~400 contracts per month. So the sky isn't falling yet.

 

[DanCali]

But yes, for some with tons of money, they should go straight to direct to save time and they will also benefit more from the discounts on larger contracts.

It really depends what you are looking to buy. VGF direct at $161-$165 makes sense. Riviera with incentives - maybe, unless you think resale prices are going much lower in the next 1-2 years, or you don't want to buy it restricted at any price. VGC for $310 if you can get it direct may make sense given where resale prices are.

For for any other resort you can get resale, the direct prices are pretty unattractive...

How about direct BLT at $275? AKV for $210? SSR for $205? PVB for $250? And 2042 resorts like BCV for $275? BWV for $240? Vero Beach for $150?

https://disneyvacationclub.disney.go.com/add-vacation-points

 

[Cartman3132]

If we talked about it already why re-hash it? to attack me because you don't like my view point(s) or because I'm saying something you don't like?

If we didn't agree once, drop it and move on...

It is ok if we don't agree, clearly one of us will be wrong....
I don't care if it is me..... clearly you do....

Except I don't care if I'm wrong but you do.......

"I would be happy paying more to make sure I passed the first time.

How much more…. I honestly haven’t done the research, it before I made an offer I would"

Those are your words not mine, correct? You've done no research but reply to everyone confidently that Disney is going to start to ROFR everything to try to raise prices and the only way to better your odds now is to offer more which is factually incorrect since Disney has passed over lower priced contracts for higher priced ones at the same resorts.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

Except I don't care if I'm wrong but you do.......

"I would be happy paying more to make sure I passed the first time.

How much more…. I honestly haven’t done the research, it before I made an offer I would"

Those are your words not mine, correct? You've done no research but reply to everyone confidently that Disney is going to start to ROFR everything to try to raise prices and the only way to better your odds now is to offer more which is factually incorrect since Disney has passed over lower priced contracts for higher priced ones at the same resorts.

Is your first name Eric? Cartman

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Congratulations, a contract passed today, well below market!
Someone got lucky!
Are you going to take that chance tomorrow

Yes, otherwise I’d be a sucker?

 

[Cartman3132]

Your definition of flooded and my definition of flooded must be different.

As of today, the largest resale broker reports ...

08 active GCV listings
10 active HHI listings
13 active RIV listings
14 active VBR listings
15 active AUL listings
15 active BRV listings
18 active PVB listings

21 active GFV listings
27 active BCV listings
37 active AKV listings
38 active CCV listings
38 active BWV listings

68 active BLT listings
69 active OKW listings
74 active SSR listings

They seem to sell around ~400 contracts per month. So the sky isn't falling yet.

The sky is definitely not falling, correct, when there isn't enough buyers on the other end of the buybacks though.....

For math let's average out to $9/pp in dues X say (2000 contracts for sale across everywhere @150 average points) .....that's $2.7mil in dues they're collecting. That's a big nut to cut into to drive resale up and hopefully buy direct....which they aren't in high numbers unless it's discounted GFV's. Then factor in the surplus they had from before they stopped buybacks and taking all those dues off the table.

 

[Chili327]

What I’m saying,
Put some thought into you offer….
If it is worth it to you to lose a contract in ROFR 1,2, or 5 times have at it!

But each time is a month you are not using those points ….

I would be happy paying more to make sure I passed the first time.

How much more…. I honestly haven’t done the research, it before I made an offer I would

You want to pay more for 30-50 years to make sure you can use points one month sooner.!?
I gotta say, I'm definitely in the "low ball" club.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

You want to pay more for 30-50 years to make sure you can use points one month sooner.!?
I gotta say, I'm definitely in the "low ball" club.

Not. Even. Close. Let me save the $$$

 

[jrieder]

Too early to tell since these are the first three we've seen - I think what's notable, is that even though these per-point values are low, which could justify the buyback, we've seen much lower numbers pass, raising pause to the assumption that this is just a small check-in for ROFR.

Seems the percentage is still quite low compared to everything that goes through

 

[Robbie Cottam]

You want to pay more for 30-50 years to make sure you can use points one month sooner.!?
I gotta say, I'm definitely in the "low ball" club.

No, what I’m saying is my time has a value,

Three months of my time is worth more than the whole contract ….

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

No, what I’m saying is my time has a value,

Three months of my time is worth more than the whole contract ….

It’s really more like 15-20 minutes of your time. You email a broker, esign a contract and then check your email periodically.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

It’s really more like 15-20 minutes of your time. You email a broker, esign a contract and then check your email periodically.

So glad you said that,
because it really isn’t 15 or 20 minutes of my time that it takes to sign the paper work signed,
it is the entire process soup to nuts
it’s two or three months of not knowing…. Delays and waiting, kids asking when are we going to Disney….

it hard to book a vacation if you don‘t know if you own it