Will any projects permanently halt due to COVID-19?

[tlmadden73]

The Star Wars hotel is a lot further along than the Legendary Years build was. However, I agree that it's going to sit there for quite a while in it's unfinished state.

Legendary Years had the front check in building, enclosed and sided. Basic parking lot work and one, maybe two (3) building pods erected but not enclosed. Pads were poured for the rest of them but had not gone vertical.

The thing is .. the Star Wars hotel is probably a lot more expensive than Legendary years was -- specialized high-tech equipment, actors, unique fixtures .. AND simply a very specific (and limited) customer base that MAY not be doing touristy things like they would have pre-COVID.

So I can easily see it being abandoned for years ..unless a lot of the internal components were farther along than we know.

Personally .. I think they missed the boat on both Galaxy's Edge AND the hotel. They both should have been built and done by the time the Last Jedi came out .. to hit the "peak" of new Star Wars fandom around the sequel trilogy. Just how the Marvel lands seem late to the game, but at least Marvel has more content coming out (shows and movies) to keep it fresh in the general consciousness.

 

[cranbiz]

Legendary years was an eyesore until they finished that. As a CM back then, it was embarrassing and bad show. I certainly understand why it was left there in it's unfinished state for 10 years. Star Wars hotel can be easily hidden if they want to, that will factor into if it gets finished anytime soon.

The shell is tight to weather, a lot of the rough landscaping has been done and I wouldn't be surprised if a bunch of the interior is in (not decorated, fitted out, etc) but major construction.

None of this means they are going to finish it soon, but if demand is still there, it probably wouldn't be a lot to complete it vs completing Reflections. My feeling is that DVC is going to take a huge hit. It's not going to sell the way it did for a long time. I see Reflections sitting in it's current state a lot longer than the Star Wars hotel.

 

[ChipnDale79]

Legendary years was an eyesore until they finished that. As a CM back then, it was embarrassing and bad show. I certainly understand why it was left there in it's unfinished state for 10 years. Star Wars hotel can be easily hidden if they want to, that will factor into if it gets finished anytime soon.

The shell is tight to weather, a lot of the rough landscaping has been done and I wouldn't be surprised if a bunch of the interior is in (not decorated, fitted out, etc) but major construction.

None of this means they are going to finish it soon, but if demand is still there, it probably wouldn't be a lot to complete it vs completing Reflections. My feeling is that DVC is going to take a huge hit. It's not going to sell the way it did for a long time. I see Reflections sitting in it's current state a lot longer than the Star Wars hotel.

DVC is something to consider. We keep talking about people not going back to disney for awhile because of the economy. But how many DVC's do they already have baked in? are people really going to just not use points?

something i havent really thought about.

 

[Krandor]

DVC is something to consider. We keep talking about people not going back to disney for awhile because of the economy. But how many DVC's do they already have baked in? are people really going to just not use points?

something i havent really thought about.

From what I read on the DVC forums fall dates for DVC are just about completely full so anybody trying to reschedule a May DVC to Sep/Oct/Nov is likely out of luck.

 

[cranbiz]

DVC is something to consider. We keep talking about people not going back to disney for awhile because of the economy. But how many DVC's do they already have baked in? are people really going to just not use points?

something i havent really thought about.

Never said that DVC wouldn't open for the owners. What I said is that I don't see them finishing a DVC resort (especially one that has not gone vertical) anytime soon. They haven't sold out Riveria. If Riveria sells to the point that they are close to selling out, then you might see Reflections put back into the construction rotation.

I suspect, once the Resorts start to reopen, DVC will be open. You are right, people won't want to see their points expire.

 

[ChipnDale79]

Never said that DVC wouldn't open for the owners. What I said is that I don't see them finishing a DVC resort (especially one that has not gone vertical) anytime soon. They haven't sold out Riveria. If Riveria sells to the point that they are close to selling out, then you might see Reflections put back into the construction rotation.

I suspect, once the Resorts start to reopen, DVC will be open. You are right, people won't want to see their points expire.

yeah i agree with you.

I guess i was just piggybacking off your comments.

my thoughts were really along the lines of how many guests will show up to disney parks once they open. Will we really see the low attendance we saw in the last recession, or will people still show up because they already have spent money on their DVC. In other words, Disney has sold a lot of DVCs in the past 10 years.

 

[Tandy]

There will be a lot still done.. Return on investment for the 50th is still too big to not

 

[ChimneyJim]

I haven't kept up on it, but isn't there still another fixed bridge that needs to be installed closer to GF that hasn't even started yet?

It has started. This was the area in early March.

 

[TisBit]

Never said that DVC wouldn't open for the owners. What I said is that I don't see them finishing a DVC resort (especially one that has not gone vertical) anytime soon. They haven't sold out Riveria. If Riveria sells to the point that they are close to selling out, then you might see Reflections put back into the construction rotation.

I suspect, once the Resorts start to reopen, DVC will be open. You are right, people won't want to see their points expire.

As a DVC owner and understanding DVC a bit, I don't think they will cancel Reflections, but may delay it and really slow play it. The problem they have is that it takes years to get a resort open and the selling the resort actually is a good revenue generator and brings guests back. There is an element of excitement with new resorts, so they have that going for it.

The big question is, what is the impact on DVC as a whole right now. Does this in some ways ruin the reputation and confidence in owning DVC going forward. DVC owners are stuck, unless they want to sell, but a future owner might pause to reconsider. It is probably the best thing going for current owners, Disney (as a parent company over all these subsidiaries) won't want to lose future ownership, so they will likely work very hard to minimize impact on the current owners. If current owners take a beating and lose tons of points, maintenance fees go up and booking is next to impossible the program will suffer massive damage to its reputation. But, that is side tracking from the original post and I will stop there.

 

[cranbiz]

As a DVC owner and understanding DVC a bit, I don't think they will cancel Reflections, but may delay it and really slow play it. The problem they have is that it takes years to get a resort open and the selling the resort actually is a good revenue generator and brings guests back. There is an element of excitement with new resorts, so they have that going for it.

The big question is, what is the impact on DVC as a whole right now. Does this in some ways ruin the reputation and confidence in owning DVC going forward. DVC owners are stuck, unless they want to sell, but a future owner might pause to reconsider. It is probably the best thing going for current owners, Disney (as a parent company over all these subsidiaries) won't want to lose future ownership, so they will likely work very hard to minimize impact on the current owners. If current owners take a beating and lose tons of points, maintenance fees go up and booking is next to impossible the program will suffer massive damage to its reputation. But, that is side tracking from the original post and I will stop there.

I agree, Reflections won't be cancelled. Reflections will be put on hold until such time that Riveria is projected to sell out within a year or so. At that point, Reflections will be taken out of mothballs and funded for completion. It is a cash cow but only if people have the money to commit to buying. If DVC doesn't sell well for the next few years due to the economy, Reflections is going nowhere just like POP phase 2. There will be a time that Reflections gets completed but I don't know when as Madam Leota's crystal ball is in self quarantine for the next 14 days.

 

[Phicinfan]

I agree, Reflections won't be cancelled. Reflections will be put on hold until such time that Riveria is projected to sell out within a year or so. At that point, Reflections will be taken out of mothballs and funded for completion. It is a cash cow but only if people have the money to commit to buying. If DVC doesn't sell well for the next few years due to the economy, Reflections is going nowhere just like POP phase 2. There will be a time that Reflections gets completed but I don't know when as Madam Leota's crystal ball is in self quarantine for the next 14 days.

I don't think it will be that long. We have seen permits for Reflections just come out, you would file those notices now if you were planning not to continue

 

[jerry557]

As a DVC owner and understanding DVC a bit, I don't think they will cancel Reflections, but may delay it and really slow play it. The problem they have is that it takes years to get a resort open and the selling the resort actually is a good revenue generator and brings guests back. There is an element of excitement with new resorts, so they have that going for it.

The big question is, what is the impact on DVC as a whole right now. Does this in some ways ruin the reputation and confidence in owning DVC going forward. DVC owners are stuck, unless they want to sell, but a future owner might pause to reconsider. It is probably the best thing going for current owners, Disney (as a parent company over all these subsidiaries) won't want to lose future ownership, so they will likely work very hard to minimize impact on the current owners. If current owners take a beating and lose tons of points, maintenance fees go up and booking is next to impossible the program will suffer massive damage to its reputation. But, that is side tracking from the original post and I will stop there.

If the shutdown goes on for an extended period of time, there is going to be a massive demand next year for reservations in DVC. Everyone right now that can is banking their points into next year. So it's going to be rough getting DVC reservations for the next few years. If we are still shut down in the summer. There is no way to avoid that traffic jam.

 

[cranbiz]

I don't think it will be that long. We have seen permits for Reflections just come out, you would file those notices now if you were planning not to continue

Those permits could have been in the pipeline. A lot of permits have been filed lately, some for projects that are pretty much going to be put in hiatus for some time due to the current situation.

I could be completely wrong but if I was burning cash the way Disney is currently, finishing a resort that hasn't gone vertical is low on the priority list.

 

[TisBit]

I agree, Reflections won't be cancelled. Reflections will be put on hold until such time that Riveria is projected to sell out within a year or so. At that point, Reflections will be taken out of mothballs and funded for completion. It is a cash cow but only if people have the money to commit to buying. If DVC doesn't sell well for the next few years due to the economy, Reflections is going nowhere just like POP phase 2. There will be a time that Reflections gets completed but I don't know when as Madam Leota's crystal ball is in self quarantine for the next 14 days.

I think that timeline is where I disagree, they do not want to wait until Riviera only has a year to year and a half left, that is too close. They will want reflections completed and ready to declare around that mark in time. They have never used the business model where resorts for sale didn't overlap. It helps them cross the finish line on the "older" resort as being a better bargain or a better location, etc for prospective purchasers.

But I agree, they are not going to rush it in the queue, in the event that DVC is damaged which they will know in the next 6 months to a year as all the variables play out.

 

[mmackeymouse]

Thank you-this was an informative post. What is the Mary Poppins attraction?

I saw this on another video, so take this with a grain of salt. But, it is the Rumors board, so alas...

I believe the original vision was for a merry-go-round, perhaps with a 360vision screen, and effects/animations to sort of bring things to life. Which totally makes sense for a Mary Poppins attraction.

Honestly, I thought when it was announced that there wasn't even going to be an attraction. That it was just going to be sort of an immersive re-creation of Cherry Tree Lane for us nostalgia types who just want the feel of being there. Which to be honest? That was the part I was looking forward to anyway. Admiral Boom? One-Man-Band outside? Chalkprints on the pavement? I would have been positively giddy.

The Star Wars hotel is a lot further along than the Legendary Years build was. However, I agree that it's going to sit there for quite a while in it's unfinished state.

Legendary Years had the front check in building, enclosed and sided. Basic parking lot work and one, maybe two (3) building pods erected but not enclosed. Pads were poured for the rest of them but had not gone vertical.

One thing I think that will be a tough sell is......after such a life-changing experience for nearly everyone on the planet...the idea of committing to 2 or 3 days, isolated, with no windows, tons more personal interaction that you have at a normal hotel....I know Disney would do it right, I know they would do their absolute best to keep it as sanitary as possible.

I think the die-hards with the money would still do it. I think it's a much tougher sell to casual fans with money or die-hard fans to scrimp and save for a once-in-a- lifetime experience. I mean, it was already going to be a hard sell for those groups anyway, but it will probably be years before people are ready to have that kind of vacation, and by then, who knows what the demand will be.

Personally .. I think they missed the boat on both Galaxy's Edge AND the hotel. They both should have been built and done by the time the Last Jedi came out .. to hit the "peak" of new Star Wars fandom around the sequel trilogy. Just how the Marvel lands seem late to the game, but at least Marvel has more content coming out (shows and movies) to keep it fresh in the general consciousness.

I think they sort of overestimated and underestimated some factors. I think they expected the current generation of young adults/young parents to be more attached to the new trilogy than they are. Even as you look younger, a lot of teens/college aged people prefer the original trilogy, because it's what THEIR SW fan parents got them hooked on. Yes, maybe the really young ones have an attachment to the new trilogy, they love Rey, they love Kylo Ren. But, they also aren't the target audience (as in, they don't have wallets)

I think the super die-hards, the GenXers most especially, down into those in their 20s and 30s, those would have been the people on board with the hotel...but many have sort of fallen out of love with Star Wars because of the new trilogy. Even Galaxy's Edge hasn't really moved those people, the way I am sure Disney expected it to. Yes, they go, and yes, they like it. But, I don't think it has has the transformative, immersive experience that they were expecting to give that group.

I think a certain section of the fandom, the ones who would have been 100% signing up for the Star Wars experience, has sort of had their fanhood sort of dulled, and some have outright contempt at Disney for it.

 

[rteetz]

I saw this on another video, so take this with a grain of salt. But, it is the Rumors board, so alas...

I believe the original vision was for a merry-go-round, perhaps with a 360vision screen, and effects/animations to sort of bring things to life. Which totally makes sense for a Mary Poppins attraction.

Honestly, I thought when it was announced that there wasn't even going to be an attraction. That it was just going to be sort of an immersive re-creation of Cherry Tree Lane for us nostalgia types who just want the feel of being there. Which to be honest? That was the part I was looking forward to anyway. Admiral Boom? One-Man-Band outside? Chalkprints on the pavement? I would have been positively giddy.

Poppins was supposed to be an enchanted tales with belle type experience at one point.

 

[mmackeymouse]

You can pretty much count on it.

Off the top of my head, Mary Poppins won't happen. Portions of the Epcot re-do will be cancelled/severely scaled back. At least with Epcot, they have to do something - they can't leave bare ground and construction walls around indefinitely. The Spaceship Earth 5.0 makeover will be scrapped for now.

Tron and Guardians will likely continue. Ratatouille will be completed, although the opening will be delayed a few months.

the Play Pavilion may be delayed, but probably cancelled for the time being.

Steve

I think Ratatouille may be open sooner rather than later. I think before all this hit the fan, people were saying it was on time, or even ahead of schedule. Almost like it was just about ready to open, but they were just sort of holding off for a big Memorial Day/summer opening.

IF that is true, and I have no idea if it is or not...my guess is anything they need to do...last minute touch-ups, testing, all the fine tuning, could probably be done during their "preparation for opening" time.

 

[gharter]

Those permits could have been in the pipeline. A lot of permits have been filed lately, some for projects that are pretty much going to be put in hiatus for some time due to the current situation.

I could be completely wrong but if I was burning cash the way Disney is currently, finishing a resort that hasn't gone vertical is low on the priority list.

Nothing more than a guess, but I agree that I would put Reflections on hiatus until cash flow improves. And they need to see how the resorts fill back up after this.
Reflections was a mix of DVC and regular resort rooms. Thats a lot of space if the demand isn't there.
Wouldn't be surprised to see the StarWars hotel put on hold as well. However, the longer it is delayed, you could see the demand for it decrease as we get further out from the Star Wars movies. Until they start a new trilogy.

 

[gatour]

Those permits could have been in the pipeline. A lot of permits have been filed lately, some for projects that are pretty much going to be put in hiatus for some time due to the current situation.

I could be completely wrong but if I was burning cash the way Disney is currently, finishing a resort that hasn't gone vertical is low on the priority list.

I don't think you are wrong. Reflections permits were in the pipeline. The cost of submitting the permits are pennies. This gives them time to figure out how long this will last and how it impacts business plans.

They could always let the permits lapse and submit new requests for permits at a later time.

 

[anthony2k7]

The one I'm most concerned about is the I believe still unannounced monorail replacement trains.

If that now is delayed further by several years then is it even viable to keep the existing trains running that long especially after last years numerous publicised disasters of doors coming open mid journey and doors falling off and other unplanned downtime.

Delayed attractions is one thing but growing amounts of safety issues and downtime of a critical transportation system that also happens to be one of the iconic attractions as well could be a significant issue.